Oupai Home (603833): 2019 performance forecast is in line with expectations bulk and non-cabinet business to drive growth
The company announced the 2019 annual results pre-increasing announcement: the report is consolidated, and the company’s 2019 operating income is expected to increase by 115,093.
From 870,000 yuan to 230,187.
730,000 yuan, an increase of 10% to 20% over the same period last year; net profit attributable to mothers is expected to increase by 23,577.
From 870,000 yuan to 39,296.
460,000 yuan, an annual increase of 15% to 25%; net profit after deduction is expected to increase by 14,970.
140,000 to 29,940.
280,000 yuan, an increase of 10% to 20% in ten years.
Non-recurring gains and losses are mainly affected by government subsidy income. The company received government subsidies in the current period.
11 ppm, a government benefit related to gains of approximately 1 was initially identified.
About 2.8 billion.
The company’s performance was in line with expectations.
Event Comment According to the performance forecast, the company’s Q4 profit side performed better than expected, and the net profit growth rate is expected to increase by 1 from the previous quarter.
35pct, while the growth rate of Air Force Q3 revenue is 20% + track, the performance of the second half of 2019 is expected to stabilize and rebound.
In the single quarter, it is expected that the operating income of the fourth quarter of 2019 will increase by 6% -29%, net profit attributable to mothers will increase 16% -58%, and net profit attributable to non-parents will increase 1% -43%.
The company’s Q1 / Q2 / Q3 revenue growth rates were 15 respectively.
57% / 12.
51% / 20.
10%; the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers is 25.
14% / 13.
48% / 14.
65%, Q4 net profit growth rate increased by 1.
The company’s performance stabilized and rebounded in the second half of the year, which was mainly related to the recovery of the real estate completed area and the company’s outstanding strength in the industry.
The big home strategy has taken root, the cabinet business has grown steadily, and the sales growth of new categories has been dazzling.
In terms of product categories, the company’s cabinet revenue in the first three quarters of 201944.
9.6 billion (+6.
19%), gross profit margin fell by 1.
08pct; The performance contribution of the wardrobe has continued to increase, achieving revenue 33.
5.0 billion (+21.
27%), gross margin increased by 0 in ten years.
82 square feet; overall bathroom revenue4.
3.9 billion (+43.
30%), every time the gross profit margin drops by 0.
27pct; wooden door realized income 4.
1.3 billion (+37.
37%), gross profit margin fell 0 in ten years.58 points.
Omni-channel sales go hand in hand and bulk business grows rapidly.
In the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s direct store revenue was 2.
08 million yuan, an increase of 10 in ten years.
52%; the dealership income was 74.
24 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.
94%; bulk business income was 15.
46 ppm, an increase of 50 in ten years.
In the first three quarters of 2019, the gross profit margins of direct sales, distribution and bulk were 68.
16 points), 35.
46 points), 41.
Marginal land data is picking up. The demand for furniture and home furnishing consumption will change in the next two years, and customer traffic will improve, which will help the company’s performance to stabilize and rebound.
Residential sales have bottomed out since the beginning, and the growth rate has changed from negative to positive. The margin of real estate completion improved better than expected.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales area of commercial housing from January to November was 1,130.05 million square meters, an increase of 1 each year.
60%; the area of residential buildings completed in the country from January to November was 45.274 million square meters, a continuous decline of 4.
00%, an increase of 8% over the same period last year.
The transition from residential completion to furniture consumption takes 武汉夜网论坛 about 6-12 months, which directly supports furniture consumption demand in the next two years. With residential sales and recovery of completed areas, the company’s performance is expected to stabilize and recover in 2020.
Investment recommendations are accompanied by the completion of real estate and the improvement of new home sales in first- and second-tier cities. It is expected that the company’s performance will continue to stabilize and rebound in the fourth quarter of 1919.
We are optimistic that the custom furniture leader outperforms the industry under the multiple advantages of channel strength, cost efficiency control, and product quality.
The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 18 attributable to the parent company in 2019-2021.
880,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.
25%, corresponding EPS is 4.
40 yuan, PE is 26.
76 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.
There are risks Macroeconomic growth is less than expected; Land reserve policy risk; Market promotion is not up to expectations; Raw material price risk; Dealer management risk; Bulk business repayment risk, etc.