CITIC Construction Investment Service—Changbai Mountain: Unique Resources
CITIC Construction Investment Service Co., Ltd.—Changbai Mountain Depth: Unique resources, pointing to the development and operation of tourism projects such as ice and snow, hot spring resources and majestic natural landscape of CITIC Construction Investment Service.
The company adheres to “the attractions are the engine, the hotel travel agency is the two wings”, diversified business is promoted, and comprehensive tourism service providers are gradually taking shape.
This year’s frequent tourist attractions are good: 1) Closed South-South attractions open each year on June 1 this year to further help; 2) The company uses “Ice and Snow + Hot Springs” to create new attractions and are landing one by one; 3) “Huimin Five Articles” exempts off-seasonHalf a year) tickets.
It is expected that the company’s four-season all-weather leisure vacation service will bring about an increase in passenger flow of approximately 50%.
In addition to the main business of tourism, the company actively carried out internal improvements and optimized operating efficiency: 1) The company’s management consulting asset-light output gradually matured, which facilitated the rapid advancement of integration.
The company’s actual controller, the Changbai Mountain Management Committee, is committed to promoting the integration of Changbai Mountain Reserve. The company will benefit deeply as a listing platform.
The company’s overall management of major shareholders’ scenic area management business, asset operation business and ski resort business complaint management fees, breaking the “ticket economy” scourge.
With the advancement of the asset-light business, the company’s gross profit margin increased further.
2) As the actual controller of the main management committee of the main hall, multi-marketing measures are used to promote the tourism of scenic spots.
The Changbai Mountain Management Council is the only government-level establishment management committee in the country. Since last year, it has continuously strengthened the marketing and promotion of Changbai Mountain tourism, including the establishment of a marketing center, and the launch of “Snow Culture Festival” and “Ski Championships” to create tourist attractions, Also added services such as charter flights at attractions.
Through marketing measures, Changbai Mountain is expected to vigorously expand Hangzhou, Fuzhou, Qingdao and other customer sources on the basis of traditional “Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen” customer sources.
3) The ability to control expenses has been significantly improved, which is expected to reduce the expense ratio.
The company set up an intensive procurement center to help reduce costs by about 10% with a unified procurement approach.
At the same time, the internal control system was strengthened, and manpower was exported through trusteeship to achieve a further reduction in cost.
This year, the company’s external conditions have improved significantly at the same time, helping the company’s performance to further improve: 1) The trend in Northeast Asia is improving and the tourism environment is stable.
The trend in Northeast Asia is improving. After stabilization, the safety and accessibility of the Changbai Mountain Scenic Area will be enhanced, and domestic tourists are expected to continue to grow.
At the same time, the passenger flow of South Korea in Changbai Mountain accounted for 15% before the Sade incident, and the improvement of China-ROK relations will help restore the passenger flow.
At the same time, Changbai Mountain + outbound tourism products are also expected to be activated again, and it is expected to account for 15% after the resumption.
2) The traffic conditions in Changbai Mountain scenic area have evolved in depth and speeded up significantly.
In terms of aviation, Changbai Mountain has opened direct flights with many major cities, and the expansion of the new airport is expected to be completed in 19
At the same time, in terms of railways, the opening of the Jitutu high-speed railway, Shenbai passenger train, and Beijing-Shenzhen high-speed rail combined transportation reduced the time from Beijing to Changbai Mountain from 15 hours to 4.
Investment suggestion: We believe that the company, as a comprehensive leisure and tourism service provider in transition, has both internal and external improvements. In the future, the company’s customer acquisition capacity will be increased by 50% -100%. It will replace the company as the only listed platform in Changbai Mountain and enjoy exclusive tourism resourcesExpected benefits are obvious.
It is expected that the EPS for 2018-2020 will be 0.
55 yuan, currently the corresponding PE is expected to be 40X, 30X, 22X, given a “buy” rating.
Risk reminders: The construction of the hot spring project is less than expected; the hotel operation performance is lower than expected; the surrounding transportation construction and development is lower than expected; the situation in Northeast Asia or policy factors changes.
Text 1 Course: Development strategy is integrated with two wings, performance is expected to recover in the future (1) Jilin’s first listed travel company, the development strategy is gradually clear1.
Jilin’s first listed tourism company, developed smoothly. Jilin Province’s first listed tourism company, an important tourist destination in Northeast Asia.
Changbai Mountain Tourism Co., Ltd. is a listed company controlled by Changbai Mountain Development and Construction Group. In 2010, it increased its capital to date Jilin Forest Industry Group and Changbai Mountain Forest Industry Group.
Company registered capital 2.
After several years of rapid development, the company’s business currently covers multiple areas such as tourist passenger transport, hotel management, travel agency operations, hot spring water development, and scenic spot management.
The company completed its listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on August 22, 2014, becoming the first listed company in the tourism sector of Jilin Province and the first listed company in the Northeast category.
The development strategy is integrated with two wings as the engine, hotel management and travel agencies as the two wings, and the development and utilization of hot spring water as important supporting facilities.
Focusing on the core advantages of high-quality attractions resources, the company’s business has gradually diversified.
The company holds Changbai Mountain scenic resources, and tourist passenger transportation is the company’s core business.
The company’s tourist passenger transportation business currently mainly involves tourist transportation, tourist vehicle leasing, and parking lot management in Changbai Mountain Scenic Area.
The company has obtained the exclusive operation rights of tourist passenger transportation and road transportation around the mountain in the three scenic spots of Changbai Mountain, which is valid until August 21, 2030.
And it is the first in the region to open a car-hailing business, and currently has more than 800 transport vehicles in more than ten models.
At the same time, the company strives to develop diversified businesses such as hotel and travel agency business: (1) The hotel cooperates with the British Intercontinental Hotels Group to build the Crowne Plaza Hot Spring Resort Hotel, positioning the hotel and attractions to form a synergistic effect. In June 2016, it was responsible for operationsTianchi Hotel Management Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Shangshang, has been established. Next, it will carry out external cooperation for hotel management output business. (2) The company established Lanjing Hot Spring Development Co., Ltd. in 2010 and acquired the hot spring mining rights owned by the Construction Group.At present, the company has the exclusive ten-year mining right of Changbai Mountain’s Julongquan Hot Spring and exclusive enjoyment of the local high-quality volcanic spontaneous hot spring resources in Changbai Mountain; (3) In order to expand the hot spring industry, the company plans to build a Changbai Mountain volcanic hot spring tribe with a total area of 49 mm, which can meetTens of thousands of spa treatments; (4) In 2011, the company acquired 100% equity of Tianchi International Travel Agency Co., Ltd. held by Jianshe Group, increasing the travel agency business.
Its products are mainly special tourism products such as leisure and vacation. At present, the trump card products include bicycle riding, Tianchi wedding, sunrise sightseeing.
At this point, the company’s strategic layout has taken shape.
After all the previous layouts, 2017 is the year of the company’s strength.
The importance of the company’s diversification is to improve service quality and create integrated integration, deeply explore the tourism consumption needs of Changbai Mountain, and add multiple consumption items, which are expected to form multiple performance growth points in the future.
(2) The control of equity concentration is strong, and the business of subsidiaries is gradually diversified. The major shareholders of the company rely on the government, and the equity is concentrated. The top three shareholders hold over 70% of the shares.
Before the company was listed, it was a wholly state-owned enterprise. The controlling shareholder was Changbaishan Development and Construction (Group) Company, and the Changbaishan Management Board held 100% of the equity of the Construction Group, which is the actual controller of the company. The Changbaishan Management Committee was established by the Jilin Provincial Government at the level of the main officeThe main purpose of the system was to achieve “unified planning, unified protection, unified development, and unified management” for Changbai Mountain.
In 2010, the company increased its capital to date Jilin Forest Industry Group and Changbai Mountain Forest Industry, and changed to a joint stock company.
The total share capital of the company before the public offering was 200 million shares. In 2014, the company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and 66.67 million shares were publicly issued. After the issue, the shares of the company held by the construction group accounted for 59 of the total share capital.
45%, still has absolute control of the company.
The second largest shareholder of the company, Jilin Forest Industry Group, was jointly established by the Trade Union Committee of Jilin Forest Industry Group Co., Ltd. (35%) and the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Jilin Province (65%). It is the first large state-owned forestry enterprise in a developing country.It is one of the four major forest industry groups in China.
The third largest shareholder of the company, Changbai Mountain Forest Industry Group, is affiliated to the Forestry Administration of Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture of Jilin Province (100% controlled), and mainly deals with the processing and export of wood products, wood-based panels and other forest products and other forest by-products.
With the gradual diversification of business, the number of participating subsidiaries has increased.
The company controls 5 wholly-owned subsidiaries, which are responsible for the company’s hotel management, hot springs, tourism services and other major businesses, including agricultural production, business services, etc., and are 100% controlled by the company.
(3) The performance was dragged down by newly opened hotels in the short term. In the first quarter, the surge in business diversification ensured a steady increase in revenue, and the net profit attributable to mothers was dragged down by the newly opened hotels.
The company achieved operating income in Q1 of 2017 and 2018 respectively3.
8.9 billion yuan (+26.
62%), 43 million yuan (+66.
74%), net profit attributable to mother was 0.
7.1 billion yuan (-0.
3.2 billion (previously expanded by 386 over the same period last year.
The increase in revenue was due to new revenue sources for new hotels, corporate management and other businesses. The net profit attributable to the mother was mainly due to the hotel’s new stage and the construction of the second phase of the hot spring tribe.After the hotel incubation period ends and the hot spring second phase is completed, it will achieve stable development.
The tourist passenger business is still working hard, and the proportion of hotel, management, and travel agency business has increased rapidly.
From 2014 to 2016, the average tourist operating revenue ratio was about 95%. By 2017, the average tourist operating revenue ratio reached 77%, mainly due to the company’s diversified development needs. The proportion of travel agency, corporate management and hotel business has increased to19
28%, which strongly supports the company’s performance growth.
There are many investment projects, and fixed assets and construction in progress are rising rapidly.
Due to the company’s hotel spa business layout, the company’s fixed assets, construction in progress have cracks, and fixed assets increased by 296 in 2016.
22% to 7.
US $ 3.3 billion, mainly due to the transfer of fixed assets to Changbai Mountain International Hot Spring Resort, an increase of 4.
3.3 billion yuan.
In addition, construction in progress increased to 0 in Q1 2018.
3.2 billion, an increase of 450%, mainly due to this year’s focus on promoting the “hot spring tribe phase II” project.
At the end of December 2016, a project was gradually raised-the opening of the Crowne Plaza Changbai Mountain Hot Spring, and subsequent tickets were gradually converted into the company’s body, and the company’s business gradually broke through the original single profit model.
Enjoy exclusive high-quality resources, strong market competitiveness, and higher gross margin than the industry level.
The gross profit margin of tourist passenger transportation in 2017 was 51.
15% downgrade of 3 per year.
79 points, mainly due to the increase in costs such as labor expenses; gross profit margin of travel agency business 62.
28%, a significant increase of 34.
93pct, mainly due to the increase in travel agency business.
The company’s new corporate management business gross margin was 23.
Compared with other listed travel agencies and attractions companies, the company’s overall gross profit margin has basically remained high, mainly because the company has the exclusive operation right of Changbai Mountain Passenger Transport in the passenger sector, monopolizing advantageous resources, and the travel agency business mainly relies on Changbai Mountain 合肥夜网 quality tourism resources to provide products and services, attracting attentionCombined with the monopoly of tourism passenger transportation, the company’s business has a high market competitiveness.
The expense ratio decreased and the company’s business structure optimized.
In 2017, the company carried out expense control, and the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio continued to decline.
Among them, the sales expense ratio decreased by 0.
03pct to 2.
31%, the management expense ratio decreased by 3.
54 points to 10.
In addition, financial expenses cost -0.
63%, an increase of 0 due to increased interest income.
It is mainly to establish an intensive procurement center, unified procurement, reduce costs by about 10%, and strengthen the internal control system to export manpower through custody.
Profitability leads to 北京夜生活网 growth after the hotel business matures.
The company operates projects with low debt and the ROE is at a level, mainly because the company’s new hotel assets in 2016 are still in the incubation period, so the profitability has not yet been reflected.
2 Foundation: the company’s core scenic spot advantages, exclusive tourism passenger transportation resources (1) “ice and fire dual sky”: the advantages of high-quality scenic spots resources to promote the development of “cold” and “hot” industries, majestic natural landscape to conceive natural tourist attractions.
The Changbai Mountain Scenic Area is located in the southeast of Jilin Province, which is adjacent to North Korea in the southeast and up to the north slope of Changbai Mountain.
The Changbai Mountain Scenic Area is a national 5A-level scenic spot. It is known as “the millennium of snow and thousands of years of pine, straight up to the first peak on earth”, and is one of the top ten famous mountains in China.
The Changbai Mountain Scenic Area is located on the edge of the East Asian continent, and its landform is a typical volcanic landform.
At the same time, Changbai Mountain Scenic Area belongs to a temperate continental mountain climate. It is characterized by long and cold winters, short warm and cool summers, and an average daily temperature of no more than 22 ° C in summer, which is a comfortable and pleasant summer resort.
”Double Ice and Fire”, focusing on new tourist attractions.
Changbai Mountain’s famous attractions include Changbai Mountain Tianchi, White Waterfall, Julongquan and Heifengkou.
Among them, Tianchi is the highest and largest mountain lake in China, and is the birthplace of the three major rivers in the northeast-Songhua River, Yalu River, and Tumen River.
Taking Tianchi as the center, along the Changbai Mountain body, three spots are divided into the north slope, the west slope, and the south slope. The three spots visit Tianchi, the main attraction of Changbai Mountain.
The three scenic spots sell tickets separately and implement closed management. After reaching the summit, visitors will watch the Changbai Mountain Tianchi from different angles. The company plans to carry out the second-phase project construction of the Changbai Mountain Ice and Snow Tribe and Volcano Hot Spring Tribe.Built for promotion.
At the same time, the company plans to build the all-season terrain park, the mountain snow track, the longest snow ring road in the country, the first ski museum in the country, and the first snow treading experience center in China.
The company is good at “cold + hot”-ice and snow resources and volcanic resources-and is expected to make Changbai Mountain the best destination for domestic high-end ice and snow hot spring tourism. The future development space is worth looking forward to.
(2) Tourist and passenger transportation is the main business and enjoys exclusive resources1.
Exclusively enjoy the right to operate passenger transportation. Companies with richer types of passenger transportation have exclusive rights to operate passenger transportation on roads in the three scenic spots of Changbai Mountain and road transportation around the mountain road, which is valid until August 21, 2030.
The Changbai Mountain Management Committee promises to allow effective introduction without introducing other operators.
The core attractions of Changbai Mountain include the North, West and South attractions, which are sold separately. The single-day fare is 125 yuan / person (excluding environmentally-friendly vehicles) and environmentally-friendly vehicles are 85 yuan / person.
Due to the closed management of the scenic area, private cars cannot enter, and the retention rate of environmentally-friendly cars reaches more than 95%.
Among them, due to the diameter of the road from the North Attractions Transfer Center to the main peak, the slope is steep and sharp. Tourists need to transfer to the reversing car at the intersection of Tianchi.Cycling mountain roads; if you choose to hike, the climbing time will be about 90 minutes.
Since most visitors to Changbai Mountain will visit the core scenic spot Tianchi, the reversing rate is stable at over 90%.
The ticket price for the reverse train is 80 yuan / person.
Reservation bookings dominate.
Ticket sales include self-sale, ticket labor outsourcing and online ticketing agents: reverse tickets, travel express tickets and chartered passenger transportation have been sold by the company; since October 2011, online ticketing agent ticketing methods have been added, and touristsYou can book environmentally friendly tickets in the North Scenic Area and West Scenic Area through the Changbai Mountain Tourism Portal.
Officially entered the “Internet era”.
In December 2017, the company cooperated with Shenzhou UCAR to provide tourists with special online car support in the Changbai Mountain area, and use the remaining models to serve customers with high-end needs, and at different levels of consumer demand.
The development of passenger transport business is closely related to the number of tourists. Passenger transport volume is expected to accelerate and the gross profit margin of business operations is at a relatively high level.
The company’s passenger traffic has reached 2.23 million in 2017, an increase of just over 2.
Considering the improvement of South Korea-ROK relations in 2018, the easing of peninsula relations and the prosperity of domestic tourism, the rapid growth of domestic demand is expected, and the rapid growth of tourist passenger traffic is expected. It is expected to achieve 3 million passenger traffic and the growth rate will increase to 34.
The tourist passenger transportation business contributed the main revenue, and the variety of passenger vehicles was abundant.
Because the previous tickets are not listed in the listed assets, and no small transportation such as ropeway can be set inside the company’s attractions, passenger vehicles are the only mode of transportation (except walking) within the attractions, and the overall passenger occupancy rate in the attractions is high.
At present, the company has a total of 6 operating lines (1 in each of the North, West, and South attractions, and there are 3 Changbai Mountain Express Lines outside the attractions) and more than 500 operating buses (193 environmentally friendly vehicles and 229 reverse vehicles), 22 tourist chartered cars, 4 tourist express trains).
In addition, the company is in the process of issuing road transport permits for 30 new vehicles.
The passenger transportation business benefited from the growth of passengers, and the gross margin level was above 50% for a long time.
Since 2011, as the company’s environmentally friendly vehicle price has been raised from 68 yuan / person to 85 yuan / person, the gross profit margin of the passenger transportation business has increased from 41.
4% increased significantly to 60.
13%. Since then, the gross profit margin has been above 50%.
Among them, after 2015, the increase in gross profit margin was due to the increase in costs such as fuel and labor wages, but the prices of environmentally friendly cars and reverse train tickets have not been adjusted for many years.
Generally speaking, the stay rate of environmentally friendly vehicles and reversing vehicles in the scenic area is stable. In some cases, the price of environmentally friendly vehicles remains the same, and the increase in the number of people entering scenic areas can reduce the fixed cost of unit revenue sharing.
Since most of the cost of tourist passenger transportation is a fixed cost, it is conducive to improving the level of gross profit margin.
The operation method supplements the lease, and the cost control ability is improved.
Due to the steep mountain roads, the company’s vehicles must maintain good performance, resulting in higher maintenance costs for the company’s vehicles, and the company’s depreciation period is 5-10 years.
In order to ensure safe operation and improve passenger comfort, in 2016 alone, the company purchased 20 buses, 25 business cars, 11 minibuses and 40 off-road vehicles for the renewal of old vehicles.Replacement.
At present, the company has more than 500 operating passenger cars, including environmentally friendly vehicles, reversing cars, tourist charter cars and tourist express cars.
In the future, the company will increase its passenger transportation capacity mainly by leasing, which will bring pressure on depreciation.
The monopoly advantage of passenger transportation business is the foundation of the company’s performance “quality tourism resources + exclusive passenger operation rights” to ensure the ability to obtain passengers.
The Changbai Mountain Tourist Express Line outside the scenic spot connects Changbai Shanxi scenic spot, the northern scenic spot and some of the scenic spots outside the scenic spot.
At present, the company exclusively owns the operating permit and charging right of environmentally-friendly vehicles and reversing vehicles in the Changbai Mountain Scenic Area, and it is also the only company in the Changbai Mountain Protection and Development Zone that has obtained the approval of the transportation department to operate the Outer Ring Express.
Although due to fixed stop, fixed departure time and other reasons, the relative speed of the tourist express line (passenger cars in attractions) is allowed, taxis have become the main advantage of the tourist express line business.
However, Changbai Mountain has not yet formed a unified rental passenger company, which is basically an individual contract. Both taxis and private cars are prohibited from participating in nearby transportation operations. Therefore, the relatively monopoly operating environment provides a certain degree of convenience for the company’s development.
Until the hot spring hotel industry is fully cultivated, the transportation and passenger transportation business will still be the core profit source of the company in the future.
(3) Consumption upgrades promote tourism intent, and global tourism promotes domestic tourism prosperity1.
Consumption upgrade promotes the overall prosperity of the tourism market. Consumption upgrade promotes the rapid development of domestic and foreign tourism markets.
From the perspective of the global tourism industry’s development speed, it is still a breakthrough from the domestic tourism sector. The overall tourism market is prosperous and the development speed has steadily increased.
From a global perspective, according to the “2017 Global Tourism Economic Impact and Events” published by the World Tourism and Travel Guide WTTC, the direct contribution of the tourism industry to the world’s GDP in 2016 was 2.
$ 3 trillion to provide 10.
900 million jobs; from a broader perspective of overall contributions, the tourism sector contributes approximately 7 directly and indirectly to the global economy.
$ 6 trillion, providing more than 29.
200 million jobs, this value accounted for 10 of global GDP in 2016.
Compared to the 2016 global economy2.
The increase of 5%, the direct contribution of the tourism sector to GDP increased by 3%.
1% indicates that in the past 6 consecutive years, the overall performance of the travel and tourism sector has been integrated with global economic development; compared with the growth rate of other industry sectors, the performance of the tourism sector is also the other major sectors.
The contribution of China’s tourism market to GDP leads the world and usher in overall prosperity.
From the perspective of the total contribution of the tourism sector to GDP in 2016 and 2017, China ranks second and first in the world, respectively. It is expected to surpass the United States in 2027, and tourism will contribute more than US $ 2.1 trillion in GDP.
Domestic tourist arrivals accelerated in 2017.
In 2017, the number of domestic tourists was 50.
01 million person-times, an increase of 12 compared with the same period of 2016.
8%; total number of inbound and outbound tourism 2.
700 million person-times, an increase of 3 per year.
Initially realize the total tourism income5.
4 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.
1%, the overall contribution of travel and tourism to GDP is 9.
13 trillion, accounting for 11 of total GDP.
04%, the direct employment of 28.25 million people, direct and indirect employment of 79.9 million people, accounting for 10 of the total employment of the country.
With the rise of tourism and vacation, tourism consumption intentions are stronger.
Research by the World Tourism Organization shows that per capita GDP reaches 5,000 US dollars, and a country or region will begin to have a mature holiday tourism economy. By 2017, China’s per capita GDP has exceeded US $ 8,800, and Shanghai and Guangzhou and other large cities broke 10,000.
From the perspective of the demand of the overall tourism sector, China’s tourism industry has entered a stage of diversified vacations, dividing various types of consumer goods, and tourism consumption has become a rigid demand.
At the same time, due to the upgrading of technology and services, the prices of tourism consumption items are relatively stable. Against the background of increasing disposable income, residents have a strong desire for tourism consumption.
According to statistics, in 2017, the number of tourists in all major provinces ushered in a rapid growth of nearly 10%, of which Chongqing exceeded 20% and Hunan exceeded 40%.
As income levels increase, tourism travel is becoming more holiday-oriented.
The current per capita tourism expenditure of residents has shown an accelerated growth since 2015, and the consumption upgrade trend is obvious.
In addition, the upgrade of tourism consumption has brought about changes in tourism consumption preferences. The trend of “going south and north” during the Spring Festival domestic travel in 2018 is very obvious.The transformation of tourism into a leisure holiday.
Tourism investment maintains a high growth rate, and disposable income is highly correlated with tourist arrivals.
From the supply side, short-term tourism investment can sustain a high growth rate of 30% -40%, reflecting the country’s high emphasis on tourism supply and the development of the tourism industry.
In addition, the increase of the minority’s dominant income is the most important factor determining the potential travel of residents, and it is highly related to the number of tourists.
It is expected that the domestic tourism market environment will continue to heat up and maintain the high growth brought by the consumption upgrade trend. The tourism market is expected to prosper in the long term, and the rise of vacation and leisure tourism in the short term will intensify, which is conducive to the sustainable development of Changbai Mountain Scenic Area’s ability to acquire customers.
Global tourism comprehensively assists in guaranteeing domestic tourism. Global tourism proposes a system to comprehensively enhance domestic tourism, and supply-side optimization will better match the demand for consumption upgrades.
Global tourism is a new tourism concept that realizes the joint upgrading of various industries in some regions through comprehensive integration with points and areas. The systemization and coordination requirements for the development of the tourism industry are the most important for the collaborative creation of tourist attractions and advantageous resources around the attractions.The higher requirements are put forward.
There is a shortage of high-quality resources in the Changbai Mountain area, and the potential for synergy is increased. The policy has more detailed and systematic planning for the development of the Changbai Mountain Reserve. At the same time, it enjoys a policy bonus that is in line with the development goals of the global tourism. It can also promote the tourist experience of attractions to attract tourists.
The total number of tourism demonstration areas in Northeast China is relatively small, and the advantages of high-quality prospects are subdivided.
In February 2016, the National Tourism Administration announced the first batch of 262 national global tourism demonstration areas, including Changbai Mountain Scenic Area in Jilin Province, and the attraction was selected as one of the top ten global tourism destinations on May 19, 2017, China Tourism Day.
The development plan of Changbai Mountain is clear, and the strategy is partially important.
In order to complete the tourism efforts of the whole region, Baishan City independently compiled and completed the development plan for the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”, clarifying the Songjiang River-Manjiang Tourism Concentration Area with Wanda Changbai Mountain International Resort Area and Luneng Beyond as the core, and the Yalu River and SonghuaJiangxi, Changbai Mountain three tourist belts and six counties (cities, districts) supported by the “one nuclear, three belts and six cities” layout.
Combine the three belts and six cities to complete the concept of regional tourism in the Greater Changbai Mountain.
At the same time, because Changbai Mountain has world-class powder snow resources and hot spring resources, Changbai Mountain Scenic Area hopes to focus on building an ice and snow tribe, which can meet the needs of large-scale international events, and implement the “Changbai Mountain +” ice and snow strategy, and arrange ice and snow, and hot spring tourism.
Changbai Mountain has benefited from national and local policies. The growth rate of Changbai Mountain’s GDP has accelerated, and there is an urgent need to develop tourism and improve the economy.
Changbai Mountain Protected Area is supported by the national policy and the Changbai Mountain Management Committee, and its overall development level remains stable.
The GDP in 2016 has reached 3.3 billion, and has maintained a growth rate of about 8% since 2014.
From the perspective of regional resources, Changbai Mountain’s pillar industries have grown. “Ecology” and “tourism” are the most promising industry directions. The government has gradually inclined to provide alternative policies for tourism.
The development plan is clear and comprehensive, and the quality of the outlook is comprehensively improved.
Since the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” of the Changbai Mountain Reserve, the tourism space development pattern of “113377” has been formed. The construction of key core areas, transportation lines, economic development zones, important strategies, leisure theme zones and environmental protection zones has created outstanding advantages and features.Bright, well-developed and fully protected Changbai Mountain Reserve.
Relying on forestry resources, key scenic spots have been protected.
In 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Forestry Administration jointly issued the “Plan for Ecological Protection and Economic Transformation of the Changbai Mountain Forest Area”, which takes “ecological transformation and protection priority” as the first basic principle and clearly states that a comprehensive ban on key national forest areas will begin in 2015.Commercial logging. In 2017, the commercial logging of collective and individual-owned natural forests in the region was completely stopped to realize the transformation of forest economic functions into forest ecological functions.
Changbai Mountain area has relatively rich tourism policies, which accelerates the progress of landing.
The tourism policy of Changbai Mountain area includes the need to make full use of natural ecological tourism resources such as forests, ice, snow, lakes, volcanoes and other historical and cultural tourism resources such as folk culture, sites and relics in Changbai Mountain forest area, build Changbai Mountain tourism belt, and build a tourist resort with international popularity.
Further strengthen cooperation in tourism resources with Russia, North Korea, Japan, South Korea and other countries, promote cooperation in emerging tourism infrastructure, route development, market cultivation, etc., and create a cross-border tourism cooperation circle in the Tumen River region.
(IV) Passenger transportation business will continue to grow steadily. The number of passengers will increase in 2018.
In 2017, the total number of tourists in Changbai Mountain Scenic Area reached 4.08 million, an increase of 15%; while the number of local tourists reached 2.23 million, an increase of 2.
2%, the same as 2016 growth rate (2.
In 2016 and 2017, the number of tourists was relatively slow, and the growth rate slowed down, mainly due to the impact of China-South Korea and China-DPRK relations.
In the first quarter of 2018, the total number of visitors to the attractions was 17.
60,000 person-times, an increase of 13 per year.
5%, higher than the same period last year 5.
Coupled with the improvement of the general environment and the introduction of the “ticket-free” policy in the second half of the year, it is expected that the passenger traffic will gradually increase in 2018, exceeding the passenger traffic of last year, and the company’s passenger business is also expected to increase.
Due to the company’s passenger transportation business, its performance is directly related to the number of passengers in Changbai Mountain.
The number of tourists increased by 14 in the first quarter of 2018.
It is expected that the company’s passenger transportation business performance will increase by about 15% -20% throughout the year.
3 Layout: Product enrichment, business integration, and profile integration (1) “Ice, Snow + Hot Spring” forms two wings of development, product diversification creates new growth points, and “Ice, Snow + Hot Spring” has strong synergies, and has become a new tourist attraction.
Sightseeing and leisure vacation are the main modes of upstream ice and snow tourism. Among ice and snow tourists, tourists who choose ice and snow and hot springs together account for 13 of the total number of tourists.
4%, after the company hosts the major shareholder ski resort, snow appreciation + snow play will complement each other, and the combination of “ice and snow + hot spring” will gradually become an important choice for tourists to visit Changbai Mountain.
This type of tourism with both tourism and leisure will also create new profit growth points for Changbai Mountain.
1. The national enthusiasm for ice and snow travel has increased, the overall ice and snow layout in the future can increase the level of income that can be transferred in the future, and the successful bid for the Winter Olympics.
According to statistics, the number of skiers nationwide in 2017 reached 17.5 million, an increase of 15.
89%; a total of 703 ski resorts, 57 new, an increase of 8.
The latest research results of the China Tourism Research Institute predict that the number of ice and snow seasons and the number of ice and snow tourists will reach 3 in 2021-2022.
With 400 million person-times and income of 670 billion, snow and ice tourism will drive the output value of tourism and related industries to 2.
88 trillion, the goal of “300 million people participating in ice and snow sports” will be exceeded in advance in 2022.
The ice and snow tourism industry in the Northeast has covered half of the tourism market, and competition is becoming increasingly fierce.
The data shows that from November 2016 to April 2017, the number of snow and snow tourism bookings increased by about 10%. Northeast China has three snow and snow attractions such as the Snow Town, Changbai Mountain Scenic Area, and Songhua Lake Ski Resort due to its monopoly advantage in the country.Top three for exclusive bookings.
In terms of tourist satisfaction, Jilin Changbai Mountain Hot Spring and Beidahu Skiing Scene Area are among the top two in tourist satisfaction.
In the ranking of the brand influence of ice and snow tourism destinations in 2017, Wanda Changbai Mountain International Tourism Resort ranked second, and the top 30 tourist attractions in Jilin Province replaced nine places.
Changbai Mountain will rely on the world-class ice and snow resource endowment to seize the opportunity of ice and snow tourism.
The company implements the “Changbai Mountain +” ice and snow strategy, and fully promotes the overall tourism layout of ice and snow to make Changbai Mountain a world-class ice and snow tourism destination and an ice and snow ecotourism destination.
The main snow and ice parks in Changbai Mountain include the National Plateau Snow and Snow Training Base, Changbai Mountain Snow and Snow Tribe, etc. At the same time, Erdaobaihe Township has been identified by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development as a characteristic snow and ice sports town, which has guiding significance for the construction of subsequent snow and ice tourism towns.
From “sightseeing” to “vacation”, accurately positioning the target customer group will help increase the revenue of ice and snow projects.
The vast majority of Chinese skiers are sightseeing tourists, and their spending power is not high. In this type of ski industry, high-end holiday leisure customers currently account for only about 3%, and the average consumption of holiday travelers in 2017 reached 3,619 yuan, farIt is 4 times higher than the average consumption of domestic tourists.
High initial consumer spending and longer stays mean more mineable consumption points.
By integrating hot springs, snow and ice, sports, and health care, the resorts are becoming more and more abundant, and holiday-type tourists are expected to become the main force of snow and ice tourism.
2. Hot spring vacations are more popular. The construction of volcanic hot spring tribes is steadily advancing hot spring tourism. The enjoyment of leisure and vacation is popular among tourists.
The data shows that the consumption of spring hot spring tourism products shows a growth trend of about 25%, and there is a clear trend of higher seasons and weekends than other dates. At the same time, the number of hot spring tourism receptions is expected to exceed 3 by 2020.
600 million person-times, an average annual increase of more than 15%.
Relying on hot spring resources and unique mining qualifications, build the first brand of Changbai Mountain Hot Spring Tourism.
The Changbai Mountain Volcano Hot Spring Tribe is the first volcanic self-spilling hot spring in China. The snow hot spring tribe with the largest temperature difference in China is located at the north gate of the scenic spot. It has a location advantage that other hot springs do not have.
The planned total investment is about 4 billion U.S. dollars, including Crowne Plaza Hot Spring Hotel, Blue King Hot Spring Hotel, Hilton Hot Spring Hotel, Fei Fox Mountain Resort and other hot spring hotel resorts, as well as three scenic spots of Canyon Pumice Forest, Ice Water Spring, and Yuanchi.
The development of the hot spring tribe will change the company’s single business of hot spring water mining and sales before, increasing the added value of hot spring products and creating higher benefits.
The second phase of the hot spring tribe project continues the development idea, and the whole industry complex expands the brand advantage.
The Hot Spring Tribe Phase II is located on the northern slope of Changbai Mountain. The main body is a hot spring complex. The building’s internal functions and supporting infrastructure are complete. It integrates hot spring spas, catering and dining, specialty shopping, and entertainment to meet all customer needs.
After the project is completed, the estimated internal rate of return after tax is 9.
55%, the payback period of investment after tax is about 10 years.
The good economic benefits of the project will improve the company’s hot spring tourism service functions and increase the hot spring-themed “entertainment, leisure, and vacation” projects, which will effectively complement the company’s existing tourism services, help the company to enrich its tourism products, and extend its industrial chain.Strengthen the company’s comprehensive service capabilities, enhance the company’s tourism business operation level, and promote the company’s main business to maintain a good growth momentum.
The withdrawal of convertible bonds has not hindered the expansion of corporate hot spring projects.
In November 2017, the company intends to issue 3 publicly.
500 million US dollars of convertible corporate bonds were used for the second-phase construction project of the Changbai Mountain Volcano Hot Spring Tribe, with a total investment of about 5.
500 million yuan.
In April 2018, the company withdrew the application for convertible bonds, and the construction funds will be resolved by the company through other channels.
It is currently expected that the cancellation will not affect the progress of the second phase of the Hot Spring Tribe, nor will it cause short-term debt and cash flow pressure.
3. High-end hotels target high-end crowds, leisure and vacation define the future trend. The hotel industry has entered a period of accelerated transformation, and resort-type high-end hotels show bright prospects.
At present, domestic high-end hotels are gradually declining due to their weak scale and poor service consciousness. Therefore, high-end hotels are facing an upgrade trend of domestic consumption and need to be changed urgently. They are gradually pursuing services and quality.
In leisure vacations, hotels are gradually growing, and resort hotels are entering a development phase.
The high-end hotels in Changbai Mountain fit the leisure and tourism-type tourism attributes, and demand is extremely strong.
Data show that tourists visiting Changbai Mountain have the greatest demand for four-star or five-star hotels.
The five-star hotels around Changbai Mountain were all built after 2014. According to the data of Yilong.com, there are 15 five-star hotels, which are basically located in Changbai Mountain International Resort in Fusong County and Erdaobaihe Town in Antu County.The area is far away.
Although the five-star hotels near Changbai Mountain Scenic Area have gradually increased from zero to four in the past four years, the operation of high-end hotels still has huge market prospects and profits.
Crowne Plaza Hot Springs has obvious location and service advantages.
The hotel is adjacent to the north scenic spot of Changbai Mountain, and most of the surrounding hotels are mainly inns or budget hotels. For tourists who are looking for leisure, Crowne Plaza Hotel has a unique geographical advantage, high-end service advantages, and hot spring features., Become the best choice for vacation and leisure in North Scenic Area.
The hotel targets high-end customers and strives to create iconic high-star hotel brands.
The North Scenic Spot is the largest passenger attraction in Changbai Mountain, with an annual reception of about 1.5 million people, about three times that of the West Scenic Spot, and a tourist center for the attractions.
At the same time, Lanjing Hot Spring has the exclusive mining qualification of Julongquan Hot Spring, the northern spot of Changbai Mountain, covering an alternative basis for hot spring hotel business.
The Crowne Plaza Changbai Mountain Hot Spring has gradually become an iconic hotel in the Changbai Mountain area. Jilin Province is the first hot spring hotel operated by an international hotel management group.
Hotel reorganization during the cultivation period is a normal phenomenon, increasing by over 240% before Q1 2018.
In 2017, the company set foot in the hotel business for the first time and achieved revenue of 3676.
140,000 yuan, gross profit profit.
The main reason is that the hotel is still in the incubation period. As a result of higher depreciation and amortization and higher labor costs, the hotel business is on track, and the various investment and investment projects are steadily advancing. The profitability of the hotel will rebound strongly.
It is expected that the average room occupancy rate in the year when the project starts operation in 2019 can exceed 50%, gradually increase and stabilize at 55% in 2020. At the current average price of around 1,000 yuan, RevPAR will reach around 500-600 yuan.
In addition to the basic room revenue, the hotel uses its resource advantages to provide comprehensive and differentiated services such as hot springs, SPA, catering, and conferences. In addition to the stable source of hotel guests, comprehensive leisure and entertainment services can also attract other tourists who are not staying in the hotel.To contribute to hotel revenue.
Assume that the ratio of the number of people bathing in the hotel to the number of occupants is 1.
2: 1, the proportion of SPA consumers in the hot spring bathing population is 8%, 75% of tourists eat at the hotel (including breakfast), entertainment, the average utilization rate of meeting rooms reaches 0.
2, it is expected that 2018 revenue receipts1.
3.4 billion, can exceed 1 every year after 2020.
500 million yuan.
4. Product diversification unlocks four-day full-day vacation tours. The rich business creates new growth points. Natural conditions determine the seasonal characteristics of Changbai Mountain tourism, and the off-season revenue is a drag on the whole.
Changbai Mountain is cold in winter and lasts a long time. The tourist flow is significantly reduced compared with summer. The peak tourist season is mainly concentrated in the second and third quarters of each year. The number of tourists in the third quarter and the accompanying tourism revenue account for more than 60%.Judging from the other quarters, which are basically in the initial state, almost all of the profits come from the third quarter.
Absolute overpowering has become a limiting factor for the development of Changbai Mountain Scenic Area. In the past, Changbai Mountain was mainly used for day-time sightseeing tours. Tourists often entered the spots early in the morning and rushed to their accommodations when it was dark. The travel time for a single day was very limited.Leisure services are sustainable.
In recent years, the number of tourists in Changbai Mountain has increased significantly during the off-season, and night tours have gradually become an important choice.
With the rise of ice and snow tourism and snow sports, the company’s creation of the ice and snow brand will greatly increase the attraction of snow and snow spots, driving the increase in winter passenger flow.
The construction of the hot spring project will provide more choices for high-end customers and leisure holiday customers. “Enjoy” will gradually replace “tour” as a new attraction consumption trend.
The combination of the “Ice Snow + Hot Spring” model and the development and operation of major international resorts will drive the growth of passenger flow in the Changbai Mountain Scenic Area in winter and spring, increase the company’s revenue capacity during the off-season, and achieve the goal of “achievable travel” in Changbai Mountain.
The number of Changbai Mountain winter tourists reached 54 in 2015.
30,000 person-times, an annual increase of 93%, and 43 tourists in February this year.
At the same time, the improvement of hotels, hot springs and their supporting facilities, the use of new technologies such as VR interactive experience, the light of fireflies, and special designed night projects such as “Night Tour of Daxitaihe Scenic Area” will also be significant.With the development of the night tourism market in Changbai Mountain, the night tourism products are differentiated from the daylight and become complementary.
The company’s rich business format accelerates the transformation of tourism and explores new profit points for development.
The company gradually reduced the previous single passenger transport-based operating model, forming a comprehensive and diversified business system such as hot spring tourism, hotels, travel agencies, and passenger transport, upgrading from a single tourism type to a leisure resort type; relying on consulting subsidiaries to promote management output and further enrichCompany format.
Data show that the average passenger transportation revenue in 2016 and previous years accounted for more than 90% of the average, and in 2017, the transfer of resort hotel opening and management business development brought revenue to the company, which accounted for more than 15% of the revenue, becoming a companyNew performance growth points.
(2) Adequate space for travel agency business development, Tianchi management consulting to promote management output1, Changbai Mountain has a promising tourism prospect, and travel agency development space is sufficient. Tianchi International Tourism has unique advantages based on Changbai Mountain products.
Due to the lowest entry of “door information”, from a nationwide perspective, travel agencies are fully competitive overall.
Tianchi International Travel, a subsidiary of the company, relies on Changbai Mountain Scenic Area to provide products. It mainly provides high-end tourist hospitality, has a rich product series, stable customer sources, and complementary marketing networks. It has an alternative competitiveness in receiving domestic tourism teams and inbound tourists.
Tianchi International Travel was included in the Top 100 domestic travel agencies in 2007, and was successfully promoted to an international travel agency in early 2008. In 2010, it was designated by the Provincial Bureau as a designated destination for high-end teams. Its products are mainly special tourism products such as leisure and vacation.Bicycle riding, Tianchi wedding, sunrise sightseeing, etc.
At present, Tianchi International Travel is the only travel agency that has obtained approval from the competent unit to conduct exploration and scientific research in the designated area.
Tianchi International Travel’s main business has been transformed, and its performance has increased steadily. After 4 years, it has turned around and turned into a profit.
The company’s operating income in 2017 was 1,366.
620,000 yuan, achieving a net profit of 127.
In 2017, the company’s resource advantages were merged, high-end customization of tourism products was integrated into the main business, and conference reception services were mainly promoted in the tourist destination.
And in the form of bidding, it has obtained long-term cooperation with major clients such as China Travel, Youth Travel, Buchang Pharmaceutical.
With the continuous innovation of marketing methods, in 2017, Tianchi International Travel Service has realized a turnaround in losses.
In 2018, the company will continue to serve as a product research and development center, giving play to its leading role in the tourism industry chain.
Publicity can effectively expand the market share of Tianchi International Travel.
The national domestic tourist arrivals and tourism revenue of Jilin Province have shown a steady growth trend since 2010. At present, the overall travel agency business is generally affected by travel trends such as free travel and platforms such as OTAs. There has been a certain growth momentum, coupled with the entry of the travel agency industryThe biology is relatively low, but the demand for resources from competition is very high. Providing high-quality and in-depth tourism products is an important condition for the survival of travel agencies.
Relying on the tourism resources of Changbai Mountain, Tianchi International Travel enjoys the company’s passenger transportation advantages and is highly competitive on the resource side. It is expected to enhance its self-competitiveness and market share in the overall downward trend of the travel agency industry.
2. Multi-step advancement of management output to increase revenue to form another growth point. The custody business accelerates management output and indirectly converts ticket revenue into the company.
The core purpose of the subsidiary Tianchi Enterprise Management Consulting Co., Ltd. is profile integration and management output.
In September 2017, the company cooperated with Changbai Mountain Development and Construction Group and Jilin Province Changbai Mountain Scenic Area Management Co., Ltd. to operate a contract in the territory of Changbai Mountain, which includes the agency agency related to service use management and asset management.
The operating rights of the scenic spots still belong to the Changbaishan Group, and only the internal operation of the scenic spots and services are entrusted to management, and the commission is based on the proportion of the income from the tickets and the custody business.
The consulting management company’s operating income in 2017 was 2415.
460,000 yuan, net profit 328.
20,000 yuan, the management output is significant.
Management output continued to advance, forming another performance growth point.
In April 2018, the subsidiary Tianchi Hotel Co., Ltd. and Dangxiong County Tangtang Tourism Company had a long-term management contract and accepted the entrusted management of their hotels and hot springs. The contract period was one year.
Management fee includes 1.2 million hotel collection fee, basic management fee (according to 4% of total monthly revenue from the date of opening to the effective contract), and incentive management fee (6% of gross hotel operating profit at the end of the year from the opening to the effective contract).Accrued).
In the same month, the multi-year operation and management contract for Heping Snow Resort between Tianchi Management Consulting Co., Ltd. and the controlling shareholder was based on 50% of the total income of the snow resort. The contract term was 5 years, and the cumulative transaction amount was about 7,605.
The continuous management output has successfully divided the scenic spot tickets and custody asset income into a listed company system in a management form, further expanding the broad business scope and becoming a new growth point of the company’s business.
(3) The major shareholders have huge resource advantages. They are expected to integrate the resources of the surrounding resources. The shareholders of the company are rich in resources and are expected to have strong resource integration capabilities.
The company’s second largest shareholder Jilin Forest Industry Group (holding 9 shares.
91%) and the third largest shareholder, Changbai Mountain Forest Industry Group (holding 2 shares.
61%) have a large number of forestry assets, some of which have been or restructured tourism development.
Jilin Forest Industry Group Forest Jurisdiction is located in Changbai Mountain, Jilin Province, with a total operating area of 1.35 million mu (accounting for the total area of the province).
19%), with a forest area of 122.
350,000 millimeters, 90 forest coverage.
8%; owns 8 national forest parks, more than 4,000 species of various wild animals and plants in the area, more than 10 types of minerals such as molybdenum, gold, copper, iron, etc. Natural mineral waste and forest tourism resources are uniquely endowed.
The total operating area of Changbai Mountain Forest Industry Group is 406.
60,000, with a forest land area of 326.
30,000 cubic meters, the forest coverage rate is 80.
9%; there are 9 nature reserves with a total area of 57.
640,000 cubic meters; 12 forests, wetland parks, with a total area of 10.
The company’s major shareholders have very rich resources. The status quo of merging the company’s “Jilin Province’s only tourism listed company” will be conducive to the future integration of resources and the integrated operation of attractions.
In addition to shareholders’ own resources, Changbai Mountain Scenic Area also has abundant surrounding tourism resources.
Abundant ice and snow resources are the gradual conditions for the company to build ski resorts, ski parks, and snow and snow training bases.
The climate of the Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve belongs to the continental mountain climate affected by the monsoon. The climate is greatly affected by the height of the terrain. The winter is long and cold, and the temperature is summer.
The annual average temperature is between -7 ° C and 3 ° C, and in winter it can reach minus 20 ° C-minus 30 ° C.
The initial amount is large, mainly in the form of snow. The average snow thickness in winter is 50cm, and in some places it is more than 70cm.
In addition, the “powder snow” created by the special volcanic Tianchi is also a great spectacle.
Relying on ice and snow resources, the company plans to fully build the “Ice and Snow Tribe” in 2018.
According to the plan, the construction will include the snow mountain trail behind the peaceful all-season terrain park, the country’s largest snow ring road, the first ski museum in the country, and the first snow treading experience center in China.
Changbai Mountain Skiing will lead the snow and ice experience with characteristics, create a new normal for mass snow and ice tourism, and a new format for high-end ice and snow tourism.
At the same time, Tianchi Management Consulting Co., Ltd. and the controlling shareholder’s participation in the multi-year operation and management contract of Heping Snow Field will further promote the integration process.
Holiday towns will become the focus of corporate layout.
With the company’s integration and utilization of surrounding resources, major hotels, ski resorts, and resorts have landed in surrounding towns with complete facilities and a rich “one-stop” leisure and vacation characteristic town with rich industries will be built around the Changbai Mountain Scenic Area., Forming a trend of embracing Changbai Mountain.
Chixi District, Chinan District and Chibei District will become the main gathering places of characteristic towns.
The establishment and gradual maturity of the leisure resort town will expand the business scope and geographical scope of Changbai Mountain Company, significantly increase the visibility and attraction of Changbai Mountain attractions, and promote the integration process while creating a one-stop tourist destination.
(4) The future space forecast of “Ice and Snow + Tourism”, the integration of the industry chain is expected to bring incremental space conversion, and the ice and snow tour will gradually heat up, and it will reach a small peak before the Winter Olympics.It will bring a 15% -20% increase in the number of ski trips each year. It is expected that the merger of the Snow and Snow Town, the Snow Festival and other elements, and the national call for snow and ice to promote the ice and snow tourism policy are expected to bring 25% to 30% of the company’s snow and ice businessRoom for growth.
For the Crowne Plaza Hot Spring Holiday Hotel, the price of the Superior Double / Twin Room in the off-season is about 800-900 yuan, and the peak season is about 1500-1600 yuan; the price of the senior suite in the off-season is about 1400-1500 yuan, and the peak season is about 1800-2000 yuan, the increase in the combined occupancy rate is expected to be around 480-620 yuan in 2018-2020 RevPAR; considering the hotel operation is on track, the superior location conditions will attract huge crowds in the North Attractions Distribution Center, plus the second phase of the hot spring tribe projectPreliminary expectations (the cancellation of convertible bond issuance is not expected to cause short-term debt repayment pressure and long-term capital flow overlap), it is expected that the occupancy rate in the next two years will increase by an average of about 3% to 5%.
4 Future: Benefiting from the improvement of external Northeast Asia’s goals and convenient transportation, the promotion of preferential sales of internal tickets (I) External environment: Northeast Asia is expected to ease the trend of internal and external tourists, and the situation in Northeast Asia is directly related to the external environment.
The Changbai Mountain area is located on the alternative border line between China and North Korea. The north, west, and south attractions are in China, and the eastern attractions belong to North Korea.
Due to the unique and sensitive geographical location, the trend of Northeast Asia has a certain impact on the comprehensive development of attractions and the number of tourists.
The easing of the situation is hard-won, and it has greatly boosted regional tourism confidence.
Since the split between North Korea and South Korea, the struggle for unified leadership has involved various forces. At the same time, the Korean peninsula is also one of the regions with the most dense military forces in the world today.
After the second North Korean nuclear crisis broke out, the military confrontation between North Korea and South Korea has been maintained.
From 2002 to the present, excluding the North Korea and South Korea meetings that were merged on April 27, 2017, the two sides have held 266 meetings of different levels in various fields.
This year’s preliminary North Korea-South Korea summit includes three, including the complete denuclearization of the peninsula, the establishment of a permanent peace mechanism, and the promotion of North-South exchanges and cooperation.
This conference is expected to achieve more important results in denuclearization of the peninsula.
Since this year, North Korea has adopted measures such as the opening of the North-South Korean dialogue, the beginning of the Korean- Korean easing through the Pyeongchang Olympics, and North Korea’s shift of its domestic development focus to the economy, as well as active meetings with the South Korean leadership to stabilize Northeast Asia.The long-term development of the Changbai Mountain Scenic Area is of great significance.
From the source of tourists in Changbai Mountain, Korean tourists account for about 35% of the western scenic spots and about 10% of the northern scenic spots. Taken together, they account for about 17 of the total passenger flow of Changbai Mountains.
5%, according to company data, due to the tense situation in Northeast Asia in 2017, Changbai Mountain lost about 200,000 to 300,000 Korean tourists. After the situation in Northeast Asia has eased, this large number of tourists will come to Changbai Mountain again, and the number is expected to continue to grow rapidly.
According to the half-season free tickets in the off-season, the off-season tourists’ growth rate is 100%. It is estimated that in 2019, South Korean tourists will also increase by about 60% to 32-480,000.
(2) Scenic spots are free of off-season half-year tickets. Off-season passenger flow will increase sharply. Half-season off-season ticket replacement will increase, and the peak season will be prolonged, thereby increasing incremental passenger flow.
During the “two sessions” in 2018, Premier Li Keqiang mentioned in the government work report that “the price of tickets for key countries should be reduced” so that people can share tourism resources at a more favorable price and in a more favorable way.
In response to national policies, the Changbai Mountain Management Committee released the “Five Benefits of the People” to the world, the first of which is the audience ticket from November 1 to April 30 of the following year, and the fourth proposed to extend the opening time of the peak season of attractions.
Considering that the Changbai Mountain Scenic Spot is extremely obvious in the low and peak seasons, in the case that the passenger flow in the peak season is almost saturated, increasing the attraction of the off-season attractions and increasing the effective reception time in the peak season will be a powerful means to further increase the passenger flow.
Free admission to domestic attractions has a positive impact on passenger flow.
Take Daming Lake in Jinan as an example: Daming Lake, a national 5A-level scenic spot in Jinan, has been fully open since January 1, 2017. Within four months of free opening, the number of tourists has reached 472%, of which foreign tourists have grown by 180%.
As the base of tourists in the off season is the largest, it is expected to bring about a growth rate of about 70% to 100%.
Cancelling the overall extension and convenience measures for ticket packages, Changbai Mountain will no longer rely on the “ticket economy”, but will change from the “attraction tourism” mode to the “global tourism” mode.
From November 1st to March 31st, 2016, the Changbai Mountain Scenic Area received 230,180 tourists, the northern attraction received 200,706 tourists, and the western attraction received 29,474 tourists. From the perspective of only five months, according to the priceA ticket of 125 yuan is calculated based on 85% of the effective fare, and the income of the exempted ticket is about 24 million yuan.
According to the growth rate of the number of tourists received by Changbai Mountain, after the implementation of the policy, the reduction in ticket revenue can be expected.
In addition, the policies and regulations include a policy of exempting half a year of tickets and three times unlimited access to attractions, and actively pave the way for attractions to enter the global tourism model.
Although the ticket revenue has been relatively reduced, the company’s other businesses have tried to take the opportunity to expand by bringing the number of passengers and enthusiasm, and the overall profitability has improved.
(3) The South Scenic Spot opened on June 1st, with abundant and abundant supplies. The South Scenic Spot of Changbai Mountain is located on the south slope of Changbai Mountain. Due to different terrains, Changbai Mountain is divided into four regions: east, west, south, and north.Three major attractions in the west and south.
The South Slope Scenic Area is the birthplace of the Yalu River. The ecosystem in the region is harmonious, and the original features are restored. The main attractions include the pine birch forest belt, Yuehua double waterfall, carbonized wood ruins, the Yalu River Grand Canyon, etc.Gentle, with a sense of originality and aspect.
The tourist resources on the south slope have extremely rich natural historical value, and are also excellent natural scenery for sightseeing.
Changbai Mountain South Scenic Spot has been banned for 4 years continuously from August 2013 to 2017 due to safety considerations and continuous repairs and maintenance of infrastructure and doorways. It was announced in 2017 that it has the ability to receive tourists.Due to safety reasons such as a slight rock fall, the building was temporarily suspended.
Recently, Changbai Mountain officially announced that it will officially open the Nanpo attractions to the public on June 1, 2018.
With reference to the company’s current reception of attractions, the North Attractions are the major tourist attractions with a concentration of 70% -80%.
In terms of area, the north scenic area is 1,115 square kilometers, and the Changbai Mountain south scenic area is 17.
5 square kilometers, although the area varies greatly, the southern scenic area has unique natural landscape resources, which is of great strategic significance for the company’s natural landscape resources. It will become a popular attraction after opening to the outside world and will bring Changbai Mountain tourismAlready more passenger flow and some new passenger flow.
(4) The external transportation speeds up the expansion of Changbaishan Airport and upgrades its capacity.
There are 3 airports around Changbai Mountain, including Changbai Mountain Airport, Yanji Chaoyangchuan International Airport and Changchun Longjia International Airport.
Among them, Changbaishan Airport and Yanji Airport are closest to the attractions, and Changbaishan Airport has direct flights to Changchun, Beijing, Shenyang, Dalian, Qingdao, Guangzhou, South Korea and other flights. It is 220 kilometers away from Changbai Mountain Protection and Development Zone for up to 3 hours.
According to the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” layout, Changbai Mountain Airport is in the process of expansion. It is planned to build a new parallel taxiway with a length of 2600 meters, 4 contact zones, 7 aircraft seats, etc.
The main expansion is expected to be completed in 2019.
Direct flights with major domestic cities.
From the information released by Changbaishan Airport in 2017, direct flights to first- and second-tier cities such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Dalian, and Ningbo will be added. Residents in first- and second-tier cities have higher tourism demand and relatively more disposable income. For leisure and vacationDemand for tourism and quality attractions is also stronger.
The opening of multiple high-speed railways from Beijing to Changbai Mountain will greatly shorten the travel time of major destinations, which is a great advantage for Changbai Mountain tourism.
In terms of railway resources, the main railway stations around the scenic spot include Baihe Station (north slope of Changbai Mountain), Songjianghe Station, Dunhua Station, and Yanji Station. Among them, Baihe Station is the nearest railway station to the north scenic spot of Changbai Mountain. Dalian, Shenyang, and Tonghua direct passenger trains are opened.Songjianghe Station is 90 kilometers away from Baihe Station. It is the nearest railway station for visiting Changbai Shanxi attractions. There are direct trains to Tonghua, Baihe, Dandong, Shenyang, Dalian and other places.
At present, the Changchun-Changbaishan Expressway and Jituyu High-speed Railway have been passed. Changchun, Dalian, Shenyang and other places can be reached by car to Dunhua, Antu, Yanji and other places, and then transferred to Changbai Mountain Scenic Area. It used to take 14 hours from Harbin to Changbai MountainAfter the opening of the high-speed rail, the time was reduced to 8 hours.
In 2019, the Changbai Mountain Chibei District will officially pass the first direct high-speed railway, Shenbai Passenger College, to 436.
5 kilometers per hour, with a design speed of 350 kilometers per hour. It is estimated that it only takes two hours from Changchun to Changbai Mountain.
And according to company news, through the Beijing-Shenzhen high-speed rail linkage (joined the joint test in March 2018), Changbai Mountain and Beijing changed from around 15 hours to only 4.
“Three days and two nights” category tourism products are expected to show a blowout growth.
Data from the same trip show that during the Golden Week in November 2017, the average travel time of trains4.
The height of the transit time between Beijing and Changbai Mountain has been reduced to below the average stop time of tourist trains, and Beijing is one of the most important starting points for domestic tourism. During the Golden Week last year, Beijing ranked second among tourist departure citiesThe average spending amount is in the top three, so pulling tourists from Beijing and surrounding areas will bring huge increase in passenger flow to Changbai Mountain.
According to the company, compared with the opening of the Yanji high-speed rail, it is expected that the number of tourists in all regions will change by 3 million after the opening of the high-speed rail in Changbai Mountain, and it is expected to reach 5-10 million in the future.
(5) Increased marketing promotion, increased attention to thematic activities, and actual control. The Changbai Mountain Management Committee will carry out large-scale sports, festivals, high-end forums and other activities in the future to promote the development of tourism and cultural undertakings in the Changbai Mountain Reserve.
Relying on ice and snow resources, mountain resources, forestry resources and excellent natural attractions resources, Changbai Mountain has become an excellent hosting place for winter sports events, cultural festivals, tourism festivals, exhibition forums, etc., and large-scale events will bring huge passenger flow andThe publicity effect has a direct pulling effect on the company’s corresponding performance.
The company established a marketing center.
Integrate the company’s downstream travel agencies, hotels, hot springs, ski resorts, scenic spot operations, and car-related services to carry out a series of promotional activities.
Cooperate with large airlines to develop charter flights in tourist destinations.
Geomarket with Changbai Mountain as the center, within about 6 hours.
Including major cities such as Harbin, Shenyang, and Changchun, self-driving tours are the mainstay, with parent-child tours as the supplement.
Different marketing activities for different needs of popular cities such as “Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, etc.”
For the Guangzhou-Shenzhen and Pearl River Delta regional markets, focus on creating snow appreciation, skiing, hot spring experience projects, and strengthen cooperation with Guangzhou Travel, Shenzhen International Travel, Nanhu International Travel and other large travel agencies.
Focus on online marketing to save costs; Beijing and Shanghai markets are more balanced in the four seasons, pay more attention to ski products and summer summer products, subdivide non-stop routes, and create high-end and in-depth special tourism products and promotional activities for their spending power.
(VI) The situation, policies and external traffic in Northeast Asia resonate well, helping the company ‘s performance to take off. Tickets revenue that has been in scenic spots before cannot be included in listed companies. In June 2017, the company established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Tianchi Enterprise Management Consulting Co.,The three-year high-level operation contract of Changbai Mountain Scenic Area is based on the ratio of ticket and custody business income, allowing ticket income and custody asset income to enter the listed company system in a managed form.
Although the “Huimin Five Articles” policy has brought about a reduction in ticket revenue, ticket revenue and custody asset income will be converted into a listed company system in a management form, becoming a new growth point for performance.
According to 2017 data, the passenger traffic of the Changbai Mountain area was 2.23 million. If the passenger traffic during November and December 2018 remained the same as in 2017, the number of tourists announced in the first three months of this year would be 17.
60,000 person-times, it can be predicted that there are close to 2 million person-times2.
Proceeds of 4.4 billion US dollars in tickets are calculated into the listed company’s system on a pro rata basis, enhancing the profitability of listed companies.
At the same time, as ticket-free and related policies promote tourist enthusiasm, the area of the peninsula continues to cool down, and changes in the general environment make the annual growth rate of tourists in 2018 try to exceed the increase in previous years.
We predict that ticket waiver will double the off-season traffic.
The off-season of Changbai Mountain is from November to April the following year. From the perspective of the recent two years, the nearby endogenous tourism resources have changed, and the number of tourists has increased.Will continue to open.
Combined with the increase in the number of tourists in the low season in 2016 and 2017, we expect that the number of tourists in the low season in 2019 will reach about 650,000, and the number of tourists in the low season in 2020 will be close to 700,000.
Although off-season tourists are free of tickets, they will increase consumption in skiing, hot springs, passenger transportation and other aspects. The revenue of hot spring hotels in 2017 was 0.
3.7 billion US dollars, transforming its own hotel to continue the process, and RevPAR upgrade, and Changbai Mountain is expected to double the number of tourists in the off-season, we expect its hot spring hotel revenue in 2019 to reach zero.
8.9 billion yuan.
Considering the exemption of tickets between 25-30 million, compared to Changbai Mountain attractions, exemption of tickets will increase tourism revenue.
The further opening of the direct high-speed rail Shenbai passenger train in 2019 will subsequently drive the main consumer power in North China and the Tianjin-Beijing-Hebei region.
With the development of global tourism and the improvement of ice and snow hot springs, more routes after the airport expansion will also significantly attract tourists from the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta to further improve the structure of passenger sources and the overall level of tourists’ consumption.
5 Investment Suggestions and Profit Forecasts The company’s strategy of using attractions as its engine, hotel management and travel agencies as its two wings, and the development of hot spring water as an important supporting tool has been initially formed.
In the future, the company will integrate its own diversified development, deeply cultivate high-quality tourism resources in Changbai Mountain, and move towards a comprehensive holiday service provider for leisure and holiday, and all-season four seasons.
The company’s main business is the monopoly operation of tourism passenger transportation, and the form is constantly enriching, and the capacity is gradually expanding; the “Ice, Snow + Hot Spring” model in the characteristic tourism field has strong synergies, accelerates the transformation from sightseeing tourism to leisure vacation tourism services, launches four seasons tourism products, hot spring hotelsWith outstanding advantages, RevPAR will usher in high growth after the incubation period; the travel agency business relies on Changbai Mountain’s high-quality prospects and exclusive passenger transportation resources to provide products, which reflects a very strong competitive advantage under the rapid development of the travel agency market; manages light asset output, and trusts the group ski resort, Scenic spot operation and asset operation business, the business is constantly diversified.
In the future, the company will benefit from the reduction of this indicator and the increase in passenger flow brought by the half-year free ticket and the gradual integration of the ticket revenue in the body through management business, the convenience of external routes to major cities and the high-speed rail, and the excellence of large shareholders.The marketing promotion ability resonates and usher in rapid development.
It is expected that the EPS for 2018, 2019 and 2020 will be 0.
55 yuan, corresponding to PE is 40X, 30X, 22X, give “Buy” rating.
6 Risk warnings The construction of the hot spring project is less than expected; the performance of the hotel is less than expected; the company’s self-funding is difficult; the development of surrounding transportation construction is less than expected;