Archives March 2020

Shanghai Meilin (600073) In-Depth Report: Focusing on the Main Business and Strengthening Meat Breeding

Shanghai Meilin (600073) In-Depth Report: Focusing on the Main Business and Strengthening Meat Breeding

The key points of investment focus on the main meat industry and improve the upstream breeding layout.

(1) The company is a meat and meat professional platform of Guangming Group. In recent years, it has continuously focused on the main business layout of the pork and beef industry chain. In 2019, it is expected to produce about 1.2 million live pigs (approximately 670,000 equity), and the maximum downstream slaughter capacity is about 1.8 million.First, the annual 杭州夜网论坛 sales volume of chilled pork is about 21 tons.

(2) The sales scale of beef business is about 120 billion. At present, New Zealand silver fern is still in the brand promotion period. In the future, it will deepen the domestic high-end market and increase the brand premium.

(3) The company’s downsizing has gradually come to an end. In 2019, it will continue to clean up non-main business assets and rationalize its operating structure.

Marketing achieved results, and the profitability of old brands improved.

The canning business has actively expanded online, offline and overseas channels. In 2018, its revenue accelerated by nearly 10pct, and its gross profit margin increased by 3.

5 points; the effect of comprehensive food innovation and marketing is obvious, and the gross profit margin increases by 7.

0pct, Guanshengyuan net profit 1.

900 million, a year-on-year growth of about 20%.

The profitability of the canned food and integrated food segment has steadily improved, contributing to the company’s stable cash flow.

The pig cycle is reversed, breeding is expected to increase in volume, and the prospect of imported beef is promising.

The turning point in pig prices has passed. In the first half of the year, the number of pigs in the slaughtering system will decrease the historical record of the decline in the number of pigs that can be propagated.

The epidemic has forced the industry to slaughter on-site and develop cold chain transportation. The company’s slaughter layout is in the main sales area of the Yangtze River Delta and will benefit in the long run.

As for the domestic supply and demand gap for beef, the profitability of the company’s beef and mutton business will improve with brand promotion.

Investment suggestion: The company’s core business is meat, and it will continue to develop its upstream layout in the future. The breeding sector is expected to bring performance elasticity with the transformation of the pig cycle.

Many long-established brands of snack foods have significantly improved their profitability.

In addition, the company actively manages losses and transfers non-main business companies, which gradually reduces related performance drag.

We expect the company 2019-2021 EPS: 0.

46, 0.

68, 0.

75 yuan, based on the closing price on May 6, the corresponding PE is 22.

3, 15.

0, 13.

5 times, given a “prudent overweight” rating.

Risk reminders: Enterprise collaboration fails to meet expectations, food safety risks, fluctuations in pig prices, and epidemic risk.

China Optics (002189) Third Quarterly Report Review: Optoelectronic Defense Leads Domestic Military and Civil Business

China Optics (002189) Third Quarterly Report Review: Optoelectronic Defense Leads Domestic Military and Civil Business

Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and the company achieved operating income from January to June 201916.

69 ppm, an increase of 3 over the same period last year.

56%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is 0.

79 ppm, an increase of 6 over the same period last year.


  Benefiting from the construction of national defense informatization, military products have maintained steady growth.

The company has always focused on the scientific research and production of optoelectronic defense products. The various types of light weapon sights, stability control optoelectronic systems, and detection and interference systems that have been manufactured are at the leading level internally. Many military models are the first in China, and some products are exclusively 苏州桑拿网 supplied to the military.

In the field of surveillance, the company is the only domestic military unit designated by the National Frontier Defense Commission that has been shortlisted for both land defense and coastal defense surveillance.Long-term partnership.

According to the goals of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” for military construction, “informatization construction must achieve significant progress, establish a modern military force system with Chinese characteristics that can win informatized wars, and effectively carry out tasks,” we believe that the company will benefit from national defense informationWith the acceleration of chemical construction, it is expected that the photoelectric defense products will continue to grow steadily.

  Entering the consumer electronics market, the prospect of the civilian products 都市夜网 business is broad.

After the company completed major asset reorganization last year, its main business covers mid-upstream and upstream products in the optoelectronic industry such as precision optical components, optical accessories, and photoresistors, as well as downstream products in the optoelectronic industry such as optical devices, optoelectronics, and photovoltaic system integration.Industrial pattern of parallel development.

In the field of projection display, the company is one of the few domestic companies that can design, develop, and produce projection machines, and can cover both DLP and 3LCD technologies. It has already cooperated with Storm, Nuts, ViewSonic, Oriental Central Plains, BenQ and other domestic and foreign companies.The well-known projection brand establishes a cooperative relationship. The products cover multiple projection methods, multiple focal lengths and various types of light sources, covering application areas such as home entertainment, digital cinema, engineering, business education, etc.

In addition, the company’s optical products such as periscope microprisms have been successfully used with Huawei P30 series mobile phones, and the prospect of entering the consumer electronics market is very bright.

  Profit forecast and investment grade: The company’s net profit for 2019-2021 is expected to be 2.

01 billion, 2.

4.1 billion, 3.

13 trillion, EPS is 0.

77 yuan, 0.

92 yuan, 1.

19 yuan, corresponding to PE is 27 times, 23 times, 17 times, given a “buy” rating.

Risk Warning: The delivery of military products is less than expected; competition in the consumer electronics market is intensifying.

Mona Lisa (002918): Performance in line with expectations Expected outbreak at the B-end

Mona Lisa (002918): Performance in line with expectations Expected outbreak at the B-end
Event: On February 21st, the company released the 2019 performance report, and realized operating income of 38 in 2019.04 trillion, an increase of 18 over the same period last year.57%; operating profit 5.1 ppm, an increase of 21 over the same period last year.97%; total profit 5.1 billion yuan, an increase of 21 over the same period last year.25%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the company is 4.3.6 billion yuan, an increase of 20 over the same period last year.30%; basic income 1.08 yuan, an increase of 20% over the same period last year. Opinion: The three major reasons for the growth in performance are expected to continue to exert force.1.The sales-end business of the map increased brand construction expenditure, continued to expand the channel sinking strategy, and increased the layout of the county-level market across the country; 2. The real estate strategic business benefited from the trend of refined real estate decoration, with rapid income growth and scale effects; 3. Product structureFurther optimization, large-scale product and new product market development has been fruitful. Seven lines in the Fujin County base will be put into production in 2020. The B-end trend will break out. The total number of lines in the Fujin base is 11. It is expected that four lines will be put into production in the first half of 2020.In the second half of the year, 3 lines will continue to be put into operation, and the remaining 4 lines will be put into operation in 2021. By then, the company’s capacity scale is expected to reach 1.5-1.600 million square meters, the production capacity directly enters the previous three, capacity expansion and expansion, B-end is expected to usher in explosive development.So far, the company has cooperated with 73 top 100 real estate companies. In the future, it will continue to expand the depth and breadth of cooperation, and continue to expand more B-side customers. Good cash flow and abundant cash have laid a good foundation for the forthcoming B-end explosive growth. The company’s operating cash flow reached 8 in the first three quarters of 2019.5.7 billion US dollars, cash and equivalents reached nearly 2 南京桑拿网 billion US dollars, B-end customers basically need 3-6 months to confirm revenue, accounting period up to about 1 year, so good cash will effectively protect B-end customersexpand. The epidemic will intensify the reshuffle of the real estate industry, which will be conducive to the continuous outbreak of the company’s B-end business. The epidemic will trigger the reshuffle of the real estate industry. A large number of small and medium-sized real estate developers may be merged or reorganized, leaving large real estate developers with greater strength.The company’s cooperation is basically with large real estate developers. The company’s rich product structure, high-quality product quality and high cost will definitely be favored by more and more developers, which will help the company’s B-side business continue to explode. Maintain the company’s profit forecast basically unchanged, continue to give the company a “buy” rating, 6-month target price of 28 yuan, the company’s 2019/2020/2021 return to net profit is expected to be 4 respectively.3.6 billion 15.5.7 billion yuan 7.07 billion, EPS is 1 respectively.08 yuan / 1.38 yuan / 1.76 yuan. Risk Warning: The performance is not up to the expected risk, the outbreak lasts longer than expected, and the systemic risk.

Superstar Technology (002444): Looking at the growth potential of superstars from the history of TTI development

Superstar Technology (002444): Looking at the growth potential of superstars from the history of TTI development

Reviewing the development history of TTI, three perspectives on the potential of superstars to become international giants TTI is a global leading power tool company headquartered in Hong Kong. Since its establishment in 1985, it has been able to integrate and develop in more than 30 years.Under the strong independent internal research and development, 南京桑拿论坛 we have developed from a small OEM company with only one Guangdong production base to a leading developer in production and operation.

We believe that the re-examination of TTI from the perspectives of strategy, finance, and estimation provides some inspiration for Juxing Technology’s development prospects. Juxing actively builds its layout, continues to strengthen its own brand and independent research and development, and transforms global tool service providers.The development strategy is expected to replicate the rise of TTI. Profitability and ROE may be steadily improved in the process, and it is estimated that the potential for improvement cannot be ignored.

The company is expected to have EPS 0 in 2019-21.



17 yuan, “Buy” rating.

  Strategic perspective: Mergers and acquisitions + independent 武汉桑拿 research and development enhanced endogenous growth is an efficient way to create a leader From the perspective of corporate strategy, the key to TTI’s success lies in: 1) the acquisition of Ryobi, Homelite, Milwaukee, AEG, DreBo, Stiletto,Empire and other well-known overseas brands and businesses have achieved multi-grade, full-category layouts, forming a production, research and development focus with China, Southeast Asia, North America, and Europe, and a global marketing network; 2) Lithium-ion technology in the past decade has gradually matured to make electricThe main tools of the tool have shifted from the traditional corded type to miniaturization, light weight, and cordless. TTI accurately grasps the industry trend and continues to increase the research and development of cordless tool technology and products. New products account for more than about an area increase each year.The industry’s lowest clarity standard has already been researched and developed, and the R & D advantages of large-scale enterprises have made the company’s endogenous growth faster than the industry and improved.

  Financial perspective: The continuous improvement of profitability is the key to TTI becoming a large U.S. stock. The superstar’s potential is far-reaching. Since 2010, it has been the “golden decade” of TTI’s leap in market value (the market value has increased by about 7 times).

From 2010?
From the perspective of 18 years, the income has grown steadily (composite growth rate of 9%), and the net interest rate has continued to increase from 3% to 8% (complex growth rate of net profit has reached 25%). The overall stability of PE assessment is the direct financial reason for it to become a large U.S. stockROE’s continuous increase from 9% to 18% is mainly driven by the net profit margin, and essentially benefits from the increase in gross profit margin (the introduction of new products with high gross profit margin year by year, optimizing product structure and production efficiency).

About TTI, since 2011, the superstar’s gross profit margins have been redistributed but the net interest rate is higher (increasing expense ratio), and the ROE is lower (due to the leverage ratio, the asset turnover ratio has been relatively reduced).

We believe that the introduction of European and American domestic services + Asian manufacturing + Chinese management R & D will advance the global development strategy, and the superstar profit margin and ROE can increase the potential.

  Estimation angle: In the new stage of continuous development, it is estimated that the superstar will increase space, and maintain the “buy” ranking leader. The positive factors such as steady cash flow, continuous improvement in net interest rate and ROE provide strong support for TTI estimation. 2010?
The average value of PE-TTM in 19 years, the median is 21 respectively.

5, 22.

0 times, less fluctuation after 2012.

We believe that in the short term, the superstar PE is estimated to be at a historically high level, the trade friction is gradually eased, the market risk is expected to improve, and the company can replace the space for repair. In the long term, the transformation of the superstar development strategy is gradually realized, and the TTI estimates the architecture or the company.The value judgment is of reference significance.

It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-21 will be 9.



600 million, PE is 14, 12, 11 times.

Comparable company PE 11 times in 2020, taking into account the company’s sustainable business sustainable industry, given 14-16 times PE in 2020, target price 14.


26 yuan.

  Risk reminders: economic growth in major overseas markets, exchange rate risks, less-than-expected progress in the start-up of Southeast Asian foundations, increased trade friction between China and the United States, and less-than-expected acquisition integration and investment synergy.

Youzu Network (002174) Quarterly Comment: Q3 Endogenous Significantly Improves the Next Dividend Proportion Increases the Underestimated Variety

Youzu Network (002174) Quarterly Comment: Q3 Endogenous Significantly Improves the Next Dividend Proportion Increases the Underestimated Variety

Event: The company released three quarterly reports on the evening of October 22: the company achieved revenue of 26 in the first three quarters of 19 years.

42 billion, an increase of 0.

73%; realized net profit attributable to mother 7.

0.5 billion (previous notice is 7?
800 million, falling close to the lower limit), the same increase of 3.

29%; Realize net profit deduction 6

1.7 billion, an increase of 10.


After the split, 19Q3 achieved revenue of 9.

1.2 billion, an increase of 9.

11%, the ring increased by 1.

70%, net profit attributable to mother 2.

9.8 billion, up 57.

11%, a ring increase of 27.

28%, net of non-attributed net profit3.

1.0 billion, an increase of 70.

08%, an increase of 107.


The main changes in performance are: 1) “Quanyou” went live on July 10th, although the current performance was slightly lower than the previous expectations, but it still led to the 19Q3 performance repair; 2) “Saint Seiya” was launched overseas, and overseas distribution revenue since SeptemberThere has been growth, and the ranking of overseas publishers has increased from the previous 20 to 16; 3) The scope of the consolidated financial statements of Youzu in 19Q3 has changed significantly, and Palm Amoy will no longer be consolidated, which will affect the income and profit of the third quarter;) 19Q3 investment net income was 189.

740,000, net income from changes in fair value was 4226.


Cost analysis: The increase in gross profit margin and net profit margin in 19Q3 was mainly due to the higher gross profit margin of Quanyou enjoyed direct breakdown.

19Q3 company gross profit margin 55.

49%, an increase of 5 per year.

64%; net interest rate 32.

68%, an increase of 10 per year.


Expense analysis: Expense rate exceeded and decreased month-on-year, four expenses in 19Q327.

20%, a decline of 5 per year.

78pcts, down 12 from the previous month.


After the convertible bonds were received, the quality of the balance sheet improved.

September 23, 2019 Youzu issued a face value summary11.

500 million, with a term of 6 years, initially converted to 17.

The 06 yuan convertible bond is mainly used for online game development and operation construction projects, online game operation platform upgrade construction projects and supplementary liquidity. The third quarterly report shows the company: 1) Monetary funds increased by 8.

56 ppm; 2) Repayment of short-term borrowings 2.

2.2 billion; 3) 佛山桑拿网 Increase in prepayments by 1.
US $ 6.9 billion is estimated to be due to the advertising of products ready to go online and new royalties (such as agency products).

The company actively grasps the trend of the cloud game industry.
In addition to the Cloud Game Industry Alliance (CGIA) discussing cutting-edge technologies, Securities Times reported on November 7 that Youzu Network and Huawei signed a cooperation framework agreement. The two parties will work together to develop cloud game cooperation and jointly develop the cloud game industry market.

Subsequent parties will jointly promote cloud gaming solutions and release cloud gaming products, including ARM Android cloud games and PC cloud games.

Investment point of view: The company’s three quarterly report is approaching the lower limit of the previous notice, but it has improved in the single quarter. Follow-up “Shanhai Mirror Flower” (expected to be launched at the end of November), “Three Kingdoms of the Youth 2” (waiting for version number), “Wild Wild Fighting” (endOr on-line early next year) and other head product performance can be expected.

Combined with the three quarterly reports, we lowered the company’s 19-year profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit for 2019-2021 will be 1.1 / 14 / 1.7 billion yuan, corresponding to the estimated 12x / 9x / 8x. Then we will continue to observe the game launch and investment income.The annual profit is about 900 million, with an annual increase of over 20%.

In addition, director Zheng Jiayao reduced the dividend payout ratio from 10% to no less than 30%. Next year’s annual report dividend ratio is expected to increase, and the situation of capital of major shareholders continues to improve. The pledge rate is expected to continue to decline. The company is also reviewing and adjusting.

Once again, we are optimistic about the long-term development space of the game industry after 5G commercial implementation, and it is recommended to pay attention to underestimation and repair.

Risk Warning: The game version cannot be released in time due to the release of the version number in a timely manner. The performance of the online game is gradually expected, the number of page games is shrinking, overseas promotion is blocked, and industry supervision is tightened.

Haitong Securities (600837): The performance of the chain is stable, the investment business is the main growth contribution

Haitong Securities (600837): The performance of the chain is stable, the investment business is the main growth contribution

The 3Q19 results were in line with our expectations. Haitong Securities’ revenue for the 1st and 3rd quarters was +55.

5% to 251.

500 million, net profit attributable to mother for ten years + 1杭州夜网论坛 06% to 73.

9 trillion, corresponding to +3 on ROAE during the reporting period.

1ppt to 6.

1%, basically in line with expectations.

Net profit attributable to mothers in the third quarter of 19 years was + 234% / mom + 6% to 18.

6 trillion, corresponding to a single season ROAE +1.

0ppt / ring ratio + 0.

1ppt to 1.


In addition, the adjusted management fee rate (excluding other business income from total revenue) was -16.

9ppt / ring ratio +3.

1ppt to 47.

6%, or affected by changes in investment income in a single quarter; end-of-period leverage ratio +0.

1x to 4.

4x, leasing and Hong Kong securities brokerage subsidiaries drive the company’s overall leverage higher than its peers.

Development trend Investment business contributed a major increase from the previous quarter.

Investment income in the third quarter was + 848% YoY / + 114% to 24.

0 billion US dollars, accounting for 43% of adjusted revenue, corresponding to ten years of trading financial assets + 46% / chain + 13% to 229.2 billion US dollars, annualized investment return rate of +3 per second.

9ppt / ring ratio +2.

3ppt to 4.

6%, scale and yield continue to increase.

The quarter-on-quarter performance of the brokerage business converged with the market, and there was still significant pressure to surpass the commission rate.

3Q brokerage revenue quarter + 8% / QoQ -16% to 7.

9 trillion, accounting for only 14% of adjusted income, the sensitivity of the company’s brokerage business has been significantly reduced.

In addition, compared with the A-share market transaction volume of more than + 50%, -13% MoM, we expect the company’s commission rate to be even lower.

The investment bank’s performance is solid, and the science and technology board reserves are relatively abundant.

3Q investment bank income is + 146% per annum / -13% to 9 per cent.

200 million, accounting for 16% of adjusted revenue: the company’s stock underwriting market share is -8 per second.

5ppt / ring ratio -3ppt to 1.

8%, bond underwriting market share +1.

1ppt / ring ratio-0.

2ppt to 3.


At present, the company has completed the listing of 2 science and technology boards, 7 of which are in line (2 of which have already passed the meeting), accounting for 5% of the companies in the line of disclosure.

Asset management business declined.

In the third quarter of 19, the asset management revenue at the beginning of the year was -11% / QoQ from -35% to 4.80,000 yuan, accounting for 9% of adjusted income (relative to the industry’s asset management income is more than flat, 10% from the previous month).

In terms of credit business, total interest income was + 6% / qoq -3% to 48.

0 ppm: 1) How stable is the balance of 3Q funding?
52 billion (vs.

(+ 4% in the market quarter-on-quarter); 2) The balance of stock quality is adjusted with the market: 3Q repurchase financial assets under resale are -10% to 59.5 billion (vs.

Shares in the industry table -8.

5%; 3) Financial lease receivables at the end of the period were 3% to 54.6 billion US dollars.

Earnings forecasts and projections We have raised our 19/20 earnings by 4% each 南宁桑拿due to higher investment and investment bank income.

Haitong A / H was traded at 19e 1.

3x / 0.

7x P / B.

Maintain Haitong A neutral, raise target price by 6% to 16.

24 yuan (1.

4x 20e P / B and 15% upside); maintain Haitong H neutral, raise target price by 6% to 9.

07 Hong Kong dollars (0.

7x 20e P / B and 11% upside).

The amount of risky transactions dropped significantly, the stock / bond market fluctuated significantly, and progress in capital market reform was gradually expected.

Hailan House (600398) Tracking Analysis: Single-Quarter Revenue Growth in the Third Quarter Exceeds Expected Gross Margin Changes Affects Net Profit

Hailan House (600398) Tracking Analysis: Single-Quarter Revenue Growth in the Third Quarter Exceeds Expected Gross Margin Changes Affects Net Profit

Core point of view: The main brand’s single-quarter revenue growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations.

The company’s operating income for the first three quarters of 2019 was 146.

89 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

63%, net profit attributable to mother 26.

16 ppm, a decrease of 0 per year.

45%, including single-quarter operating income of 39 in the third quarter.

68 ppm, an increase of 31% in ten years, and net profit attributable to mothers4.

91 trillion, down 12 a year.


In terms of brands, Hailan House, Aiju Rabbit, San Keno, and other brands (Hailan Optimized, OVV, AEX, boys and girls, Ying’s) increased by 14 in the third quarter.

41%, -13.

85%, 77.

44% and 687% (9 in the second quarter respectively.

30%, -23.

57%, 14.

52% and 357%), the acceleration of the growth of the main brand benefits from the appropriate reduction of the magnification, which has a better promotion effect on sales, improved channel structure, increased growth of malls and malls in the same store, and faster growth of e-commerce business.

The decrease in net profit attributable to mothers in the third quarter was mainly due to the decrease in gross profit margin.

The company’s gross profit margin in the third quarter was 42.

01%, compared with 52 in the same period last year.


The decrease in gross profit margin was mainly due to the single quarter gross profit margin of the Hailan House brand in the third quarter of 38.

95%, compared with 54 in the same period last year.

54%, in addition to a high buyout ratio in the same period last year, it is also related to the main brand ‘s appropriate reduction of the magnification this year to promote sales, the proportion of buyout products has dropped, and Haiyi ‘s inventory clearance (including the main brand) has been changed.At the end, the gross profit margin is expected to rebound.

Operational indicators and operation quality have been continuously improved.

The company’s inventory turnover days and accounts receivable turnover days in the first three quarters were 299 days and 14 days (333 days and 16 days in the same period last year).

Net operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 2.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 47 per year.


EPS for 2019-2021 are expected to be 0.

78 yuan / share, 0.

90 yuan / share, 1.

01 yuan / share.

We are optimistic that the company’s net profit attributable to the mother in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. The Spring Festival in 2020 will help sales in the fourth quarter of this year, and at the same time, 武汉夜生活网 the gross profit margin will be reduced.

With reference to the average PE of a comparable company in 2019, the company is given December 2019.

5 times PE, reasonable value 9.

75 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: the risk of terminal inventory backlog; the risk of extreme weather affecting clothing sales, etc.

Peacebird (603877): slightly lower performance, expected significant improvement

Peacebird (603877): slightly lower performance, expected significant improvement

The company released its 2018 annual report and initially achieved operating income of 77.

120,000 yuan (+7.

78%), and realized non-net profit attributable to mothers / deductors5.


9.5 billion, an increase of 27.

51% / 12.


Of which 18Q4 single quarter revenue of 28.

2.4 billion (-0.

38%), realizing attribution / deduction of non-net profit2.


79 trillion, increased by 2 respectively.

60% / 2.

twenty four%.

18Q4 revenue also declined, mainly due to weak terminal sales and 17Q4 (+18.

37%) high base effect.

At the same time, a profit distribution plan was announced, and a dividend of 10 yuan was planned for every 10 shares of cash, which accounted for the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company.


Sub-brands: Women’s income was basically flat, men’s & children’s clothing continued to grow, and Rakucho improved significantly.

①Women’s revenue reached 26.

7.5 billion (-0.

37%), a higher net increase of 25 stores to 1551.

Affected by seasonal goods processing, gross profit margin also decreased by 1.

15PCT to 53.


② Men’s / children’s wear continued to grow for a long time, with revenues of 28 respectively.


6.4 billion (+12.

29% / + 21.


Among them, the channel maintained a rapid expansion of stores, with a net increase of 96 stores (total 1322) / 106 stores (total 867), and gross profit margins increased slightly by 0.


37 to 57.

37% / 52.


③Under the background of both brand positioning and product quality improvement, Rakucho’s revenue also increased6.

35% to 10.

08 million yuan, a net increase of 29 channels to 616; gross profit margin also increased by 6.18PCT to 49.


Sub-channel: The structure has been continuously optimized, and the proportion of e-commerce and shopping malls has increased.

From the overall data, the company’s online / offline revenue increased by 11 respectively.

55% / 6.

78% to 19.


00 ppm, accounting for 26 of total revenue.

29% / 73.


Specifically: ① The proportion of online income increases every year 2.

72 PCTs, thanks to the company’s active expansion of new social e-commerce channels, and cooperation with companies such as Ali and Tencent to explore new retail and establish and consolidate the foundation of the entire network of retail.

The e-commerce platform’s high-level retail sales also increased by 10%, with a GMV of $ 3.6 billion, of which the Double Eleven GMV was 8.

1.8 billion.

② From the perspective of offline channels, the company’s store structure continued to optimize, and the proportion of shopping mall stores increased.

As of the end of 2018, the retail sales of department stores / shopping malls / street stores / ollai stores reached 34 respectively.




20,000 yuan, accounting for 30.

94% / 30.

11% / 15.

19% / 2.


Among them, there was a net increase of 343 shopping mall stores, and retail sales increased by 20%, accounting for an increase of 2%.


In addition, Olay stores are also showing 杭州夜生活网 a rapid growth trend, with the retail scale exceeding 3% (+ 70%) and the same increase, the proportion increased by 2.


The proportion of department store and street store channel optimization and adjustment decreased by 3 respectively.



Overall profitability has improved slightly.

The company’s initial gross profit margin was 53.

43%, an increase of 0 a year.

48PCTs is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of direct-operated stores with higher gross profit margins (gradual net increase of 245 stores, revenue ratio +3.


But at the same time, the expansion of direct sales channels and the scale of e-commerce platforms (commission increase) or the sales expense ratio rose by 0.


In addition, the asset impairment loss for the period increased by 18 million yuan, mainly due 四川耍耍网 to the increase in bad debt losses and the increase in long-term equity investment impairment.
However, the total asset disposal income increased by 30.68 million, and other income increased by 80.61 million (mainly government subsidies). Taken together, the company’s net interest rate increased by 0.
93PCT to 7.


The TOC reform effect is remarkable, and the overall operating efficiency is improved.

With the implementation of the company’s TOC, the inventory scale has been effectively controlled. With the increase in revenue, the original value of inventory goods has fallen in the initial stage1.

1 billion (-4.

81%), the inventory turnover days decreased by 1 day to 184 days compared with the previous year.

At the same time, the company’s merchandise sales rate increased. In the summer of 2018, the merchandise sales rate increased by 6%, and the retail discount increased by 2%.

In terms of cash flow, long-term net operating cash.

53 trillion, considering currency funds and wealth management products, the total is about 21 trillion, and the overall cash flow is sufficient and stable.

Profit forecast and investment advice.

Affected by weak terminal consumption, the company’s store expansion speed increased, dragging down overall revenue growth.

Considering the company’s comprehensive multi-brand and multi-category layout, stable development of men’s and women’s clothing, and high-speed growth of children’s clothing, the business adjustment of Rakucho achieved initial results.

At the same time, the promotion of TOC has also continuously improved the efficiency of the overall supply chain and the overall operating capacity.

It is estimated that the net profit for 2019/20/21 will be 7 respectively.



35 trillion, an increase of 23 respectively.

34% / 15.

46% / 14.

9%, corresponding EPS is 1.



95 yuan, the current price corresponding to PE is 14/12/10 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Risk warning: weak consumption, sales expectations exceed expectations; store expansion is not as fast as expected.

Baby-friendly room (603214): Proposed to acquire the exclusive distributor of Japanese Royal Toys in China to extend the company’s industrial chain layout

Baby-friendly room (603214): Proposed to acquire the exclusive distributor of Japanese Royal Toys in China to extend the company’s industrial chain layout

Event: On December 28, the company issued an announcement saying that it is expected to acquire 58% of the target company’s 100% equity held by Shanghai Zhiyile Trading Co., Ltd., including all assets, business, personnel and authorized ownership of the Japanese royal toyThe exclusive right to use and sell exclusive intellectual property rights of Japanese royal toys in mainland China. The subject company can independently manage products containing intellectual property rights of the Japanese royal toy brand in mainland China. Through commission processing and development of distributors, it has full control.Production and sale of royal toys in mainland China.

  Extend the company’s industrial chain layout and give play to industry synergy.

Royal Toys (TOYROYAL) is a Japanese century-old baby toy brand. It is a professional infant brand company that integrates infant toys, supplies and textiles. The three major brands TOYROYAL, BABYROYAL, KIDROYAL, are infant toys,Maternal and infant supplies, baby bedding, and royal toys are the best toy brands in the 0-3 age group in the Chinese market.

The company’s acquisition performance: (1) the company expanded the wide toy retail market, strengthened the advantages of toy categories, extended the company’s industrial chain layout, and exerted industrial synergy; (2) increased gross profit margin, enhanced the company’s sustainable development capabilities, and enhanced the company’s marketCompetition and profitability.

  As the first share of maternal and infant retail, the company accelerated store layout, and its gross profit margin continued to hit record highs.

(1) Acceleration of store openings: In 2019, H1 will open 10 net stores, Q3 will open 15 net stores in a single season, and it is estimated that Q4 will open 20 stores (currently, 30 stores have been contracted to be opened). In the future, it will focus on Chongqing in the southwest region and acquireChongqing stores are expected to turn a profit in Q4, and it is expected that the store opening speed will increase to 80 in 2020.

(2) The gross profit margin has increased for four consecutive years: the company’s product structure has been adjusted, and the proportion of its own products has increased. Through optimization of the supply chain, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin will be further improved.

(3) Increase investment in e-commerce platforms: In 2019, the company will formally cooperate with Tencent. In the future, 佛山桑拿网 it will cooperate on WeChat mini-programs and advertising to bring more traffic to the company.

  Profit forecast and rating.

It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2019-2021 will be 1.

6 trillion, 2 trillion, 2.

500 million, EPS is 1.

53 yuan, 1.

96 yuan, 2.

45 yuan, corresponding PE is 27/21/17 times, maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk warning: The store development speed and store operation efficiency are lower than expected, and the chain retail model has risks such as rental growth.

Oupai Home (603833): 2019 performance forecast is in line with expectations bulk and non-cabinet business to drive growth

Oupai Home (603833): 2019 performance forecast is in line with expectations bulk and non-cabinet business to drive growth

The company announced the 2019 annual results pre-increasing announcement: the report is consolidated, and the company’s 2019 operating income is expected to increase by 115,093.

From 870,000 yuan to 230,187.

730,000 yuan, an increase of 10% to 20% over the same period last year; net profit attributable to mothers is expected to increase by 23,577.

From 870,000 yuan to 39,296.

460,000 yuan, an annual increase of 15% to 25%; net profit after deduction is expected to increase by 14,970.

140,000 to 29,940.

280,000 yuan, an increase of 10% to 20% in ten years.

Non-recurring gains and losses are mainly affected by government subsidy income. The company received government subsidies in the current period.

11 ppm, a government benefit related to gains of approximately 1 was initially identified.

About 2.8 billion.

The company’s performance was in line with expectations.

  Event Comment According to the performance forecast, the company’s Q4 profit side performed better than expected, and the net profit growth rate is expected to increase by 1 from the previous quarter.


35pct, while the growth rate of Air Force Q3 revenue is 20% + track, the performance of the second half of 2019 is expected to stabilize and rebound.

In the single quarter, it is expected that the operating income of the fourth quarter of 2019 will increase by 6% -29%, net profit attributable to mothers will increase 16% -58%, and net profit attributable to non-parents will increase 1% -43%.

The company’s Q1 / Q2 / Q3 revenue growth rates were 15 respectively.

57% / 12.

51% / 20.

10%; the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers is 25.

14% / 13.

48% / 14.

65%, Q4 net profit growth rate increased by 1.


35 points.

The company’s performance stabilized and rebounded in the second half of the year, which was mainly related to the recovery of the real estate completed area and the company’s outstanding strength in the industry.

The big home strategy has taken root, the cabinet business has grown steadily, and the sales growth of new categories has been dazzling.

In terms of product categories, the company’s cabinet revenue in the first three quarters of 201944.

9.6 billion (+6.

19%), gross profit margin fell by 1.

08pct; The performance contribution of the wardrobe has continued to increase, achieving revenue 33.

5.0 billion (+21.

27%), gross margin increased by 0 in ten years.

82 square feet; overall bathroom revenue4.

3.9 billion (+43.

30%), every time the gross profit margin drops by 0.

27pct; wooden door realized income 4.

1.3 billion (+37.

37%), gross profit margin fell 0 in ten years.58 points.

Omni-channel sales go hand in hand and bulk business grows rapidly.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s direct store revenue was 2.

08 million yuan, an increase of 10 in ten years.

52%; the dealership income was 74.

24 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

94%; bulk business income was 15.

46 ppm, an increase of 50 in ten years.


In the first three quarters of 2019, the gross profit margins of direct sales, distribution and bulk were 68.

30% (-1.

16 points), 35.

72% (-0.

46 points), 41.

77% (-2.


Marginal land data is picking up. The demand for furniture and home furnishing consumption will change in the next two years, and customer traffic will improve, which will help the company’s performance to stabilize and rebound.

Residential sales have bottomed out since the beginning, and the growth rate has changed from negative to positive. The margin of real estate completion improved better than expected.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales area of commercial housing from January to November was 1,130.05 million square meters, an increase of 1 each year.

60%; the area of residential buildings completed in the country from January to November was 45.274 million square meters, a continuous decline of 4.

00%, an increase of 8% over the same period last year.


The transition from residential completion to furniture consumption takes 武汉夜网论坛 about 6-12 months, which directly supports furniture consumption demand in the next two years. With residential sales and recovery of completed areas, the company’s performance is expected to stabilize and recover in 2020.

  Investment recommendations are accompanied by the completion of real estate and the improvement of new home sales in first- and second-tier cities. It is expected that the company’s performance will continue to stabilize and rebound in the fourth quarter of 1919.

We are optimistic that the custom furniture leader outperforms the industry under the multiple advantages of channel strength, cost efficiency control, and product quality.

The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 18 attributable to the parent company in 2019-2021.

28, 22.

73, 26.

880,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.

31%, 24.

34%, 18.

25%, corresponding EPS is 4.

35, 5.

41, 6.

40 yuan, PE is 26.

11, 21.

00, 17.

76 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.

  There are risks Macroeconomic growth is less than expected; Land reserve policy risk; Market promotion is not up to expectations; Raw material price risk; Dealer management risk; Bulk business repayment risk, etc.