Hisense Home Appliances (000921) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Central Air Business’s Steady Double-digit Growth and Review of Company Evaluation
Hisense’s third quarter report in 19: single quarter revenue of -4.
5%, profit ten years +9.
The company achieved operating income of 80 in 19Q3.
6 ‰, at least -4.
5%, net profit attributable to mother 3 in a single quarter.
9 trillion, +9 for ten years.
Q3 cumulative revenue was 270.
1 ‰, at least -6.
2%, gradually return to the mother’s net profit13.
5 trillion, +17 a year.
6%, corresponding to EPS combined 0.
The single-quarter revenue was small, but the range was narrower. The profit remained unchanged, but the growth rate fell, and the single-quarter performance was basically in line with expectations.
19Q4 Hisense Hitachi was officially incorporated into the profit / cash flow statement.
The company officially consolidated the central air-conditioning business from September 30, 19, and disclosed the balance sheet on September 30, but the income statement and cash flow statement have been consolidated since October.Income items are included.
Main business: The size of air conditioners has further tightened and the pressure has increased; the number of refrigerators has maintained a moderate growth.
The company’s single quarter revenue is -4 per year.
5%, a slight decrease, breakdown: Air-conditioning business: According to Aoweihe Industry Online Statistics, 19Q3 air-conditioning industry demand and domestic sales replacement have become -4% /-3%, respectively, and have declined slightly, and the average retail price decline has expanded toMedium and high numerical levels.
Due to the tightening of the industry competition pattern in the single quarter of 19Q3, under the dual pressure of share and average price, the company’s domestic sales of air conditioners are estimated to exceed 20% per year, and exports have maintained a long-term positive growth.
Refrigerator business: In terms of domestic sales, the industry demand is not frightening, but due to the decline in raw material prices, the ASP of major brands has further narrowed to about 5%.
The company’s single-quarter and domestic sales revenue is estimated to maintain a moderate growth in several numbers.
On a sequential basis, the company’s single-quarter revenue growth rate has not changed much, refrigerators have maintained moderate growth, and poor domestic sales of air conditioners have been the main factors dragging down revenue.
Central air-conditioning business: industry demand fell, and the company’s overall performance was under pressure.
According to industry online statistics, 2019?
The central air-conditioning market size was six months in August.
5%, of which the unit is ten years -7.
2%, multi-line average +2.
8%, water machine +2 for ten years.
Which is dragged down by real estate and the economy, 7?
August’s growth rate has a certain timing compared with 19H1.
Retail channel business growth pressure resistance, engineering channel is relatively better.
Hisense Hitachi still maintained double-digit revenue / profit growth in a single quarter.
According to the company’s disclosure, Hisense Hitachi’s operating income for the first three quarters of 19 was +12 per year.
5%, net profit +19 per year.
2%, combined with 19H1 data, Hisense Hitachi’s 19Q3 single quarter revenue / net profit continued to grow in both directions.
The growth rate of revenue was basically the same as that of 19H1, but the growth rate of profits fell to some extent, mainly due to the company’s quarterly tax rate changes.
Profit analysis: The profitability of refrigerators continued to improve, and air conditioning dragged down the main business profit of 19Q3 and the gross profit margin was 20.
5% each time +0.
5pct, a slight increase. It is estimated that the gross profit margin of the refrigerator business has steadily increased, but the gross profit of the domestic sales of air conditioners has a certain amount.
The sales / management / R & D expense ratio is +0 each year.
8 / + 0.
1 / -0.
1pc, there is a certain upward flow of sales expenses. It is estimated that the sales expense rate should be increased according to the increase and deviation of the internal sales revenue of the air conditioner, and it is related to a certain degree of marketing support.
The single-quarter 北京夜网 investment income increased by + 23% and expanded to the contribution of joint ventures such as Hisense Hitachi. As a result, investment income such as swap wealth management products has been confirmed in the current period, which has brought certain single-quarter fluctuations.
After excluding investment income, the main business profit is ten years-8.
8%, a larger income, mainly due to the increase in air-conditioning business.
Short-term business prospects: The refrigerator business supports the main business profits, and the growth of Yang Kong Air is a definitive alternative.
Under the suppression of the demand cycle and further tightening in the original main business of the air-conditioning business, it is expected that revenue and profit performance will still be under pressure.
However, since 2017H2, the marginal improvement trend of operating conditions has gradually emerged.
It is expected to have some support for performance.
Hisense Hitachi’s contribution contributed more than half of the profits. Against the background of the industry’s mediocre growth, the revenue / profit side has maintained steady growth with high certainty.
The multi-connected market has plenty of space, Hisense Hitachi leads the industry, and the underrated central air-conditioned multi-connected central air conditioner still has plenty of room for growth.
Although the growth rate of the multi-connected industry has been increasing to some extent due to factors such as the decline in real estate since 18-19, in the medium and long term, taking into account the advancement of urbanization, the increase in the proportion of well-furnished houses, and the increase in residents’ income and consumption levelsThe industry space is still huge.
Comparing the multi-line holding data of major domestic air-conditioning demand regions, it is not difficult to find that there is a huge gap of several times in the penetration rate of less developed regions and developed regions. At present, the major consumer markets of the industry are also mainly concentrated in the first and second tier cities in more developed regions such as East China.The industry has huge growth potential.
Hisense Hitachi is a leader in the multi-connection field, with continuous improvement in sharing and leading growth in the industry.
Hisense Hitachi is a leader in the multi-connection field of central air-conditioning, with a market share of 19 in 2018.
5%, second only to Daikin (23.
0%), which is significantly ahead of other domestic brands such as Greemei.
The core advantage of Hisense Hitachi is that compared with domestic brands, it has the technical and R & D support of Hitachi, leading product power and brand power. Compared with foreign brands, it has the advantages of Hisense channel management and market operation. Therefore, in the “product” + “marketWith the two-wheel drive, there has been a steady improvement, and the gap with Daikin has continued to narrow.
In 18 years, Hisense Hitachi’s compound growth rate of revenue and profit was 31% / 26%, far exceeding the compound growth rate of the central air conditioning / multi-connection industry in the corresponding cycle (respectively 5% / 11%).
Review the company value by business, and underestimate the scarcity of multiple online targets.
With the company’s central air-conditioning business officially from the off-balance sheet to the on-balance sheet: (1) the company’s asset quality, income scale and growth stability, cash flow conditions are expected to increase correspondingly; (2) the company from the original second-tier white power brandThe company integrates pure multi-line industry targets, and is committed to improving the market’s awareness of the company’s rapid and stable growth in central air-conditioning business value.
After performing a simple static calculation and considering sufficient safety margins, we give the company’s original white electricity main business 0.
The 6x PB estimate (based on the 19-year mid-term return to the parent’s net assets), the remaining market value (still closing on October 28, 19) corresponds to a 19-year PE multiple of Hisense’s net profit vested on the listed company’s platform.
Considering the industry’s growing space, Hisense Hitachi’s leading advantage in the multi-connection field is expected to continue to maintain stable and rapid growth in future revenue and profits.
Under the current market value, the company’s high-quality, scarce central air assets are significantly undervalued.
Investment suggestion: Although the pressure on air-conditioning demand and the tight layout have some pressure on the profit growth of the company’s air-conditioning business, the improvement of the company’s refrigerator business operation has formed a certain support for the performance. More importantly, in the multi-line business, only sufficient and steady progressAs well as structural upgrades and cost dividends to support profit performance, the profit growth of multi-line business is expected to reach about 20%.
Maintain prediction company 2019?
The 21-year EPS is 1.
50 yuan, corresponding to PE is 9/8/8 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.
Risk warning: demand growth rate, original cost growth, exchange rate fluctuation range.