Peacebird (603877): slightly lower performance, expected significant improvement

Peacebird (603877): slightly lower performance, expected significant improvement

The company released its 2018 annual report and initially achieved operating income of 77.

120,000 yuan (+7.

78%), and realized non-net profit attributable to mothers / deductors5.


9.5 billion, an increase of 27.

51% / 12.


Of which 18Q4 single quarter revenue of 28.

2.4 billion (-0.

38%), realizing attribution / deduction of non-net profit2.


79 trillion, increased by 2 respectively.

60% / 2.

twenty four%.

18Q4 revenue also declined, mainly due to weak terminal sales and 17Q4 (+18.

37%) high base effect.

At the same time, a profit distribution plan was announced, and a dividend of 10 yuan was planned for every 10 shares of cash, which accounted for the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company.


Sub-brands: Women’s income was basically flat, men’s & children’s clothing continued to grow, and Rakucho improved significantly.

①Women’s revenue reached 26.

7.5 billion (-0.

37%), a higher net increase of 25 stores to 1551.

Affected by seasonal goods processing, gross profit margin also decreased by 1.

15PCT to 53.


② Men’s / children’s wear continued to grow for a long time, with revenues of 28 respectively.


6.4 billion (+12.

29% / + 21.


Among them, the channel maintained a rapid expansion of stores, with a net increase of 96 stores (total 1322) / 106 stores (total 867), and gross profit margins increased slightly by 0.


37 to 57.

37% / 52.


③Under the background of both brand positioning and product quality improvement, Rakucho’s revenue also increased6.

35% to 10.

08 million yuan, a net increase of 29 channels to 616; gross profit margin also increased by 6.18PCT to 49.


Sub-channel: The structure has been continuously optimized, and the proportion of e-commerce and shopping malls has increased.

From the overall data, the company’s online / offline revenue increased by 11 respectively.

55% / 6.

78% to 19.


00 ppm, accounting for 26 of total revenue.

29% / 73.


Specifically: ① The proportion of online income increases every year 2.

72 PCTs, thanks to the company’s active expansion of new social e-commerce channels, and cooperation with companies such as Ali and Tencent to explore new retail and establish and consolidate the foundation of the entire network of retail.

The e-commerce platform’s high-level retail sales also increased by 10%, with a GMV of $ 3.6 billion, of which the Double Eleven GMV was 8.

1.8 billion.

② From the perspective of offline channels, the company’s store structure continued to optimize, and the proportion of shopping mall stores increased.

As of the end of 2018, the retail sales of department stores / shopping malls / street stores / ollai stores reached 34 respectively.




20,000 yuan, accounting for 30.

94% / 30.

11% / 15.

19% / 2.


Among them, there was a net increase of 343 shopping mall stores, and retail sales increased by 20%, accounting for an increase of 2%.


In addition, Olay stores are also showing 杭州夜生活网 a rapid growth trend, with the retail scale exceeding 3% (+ 70%) and the same increase, the proportion increased by 2.


The proportion of department store and street store channel optimization and adjustment decreased by 3 respectively.



Overall profitability has improved slightly.

The company’s initial gross profit margin was 53.

43%, an increase of 0 a year.

48PCTs is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of direct-operated stores with higher gross profit margins (gradual net increase of 245 stores, revenue ratio +3.


But at the same time, the expansion of direct sales channels and the scale of e-commerce platforms (commission increase) or the sales expense ratio rose by 0.


In addition, the asset impairment loss for the period increased by 18 million yuan, mainly due 四川耍耍网 to the increase in bad debt losses and the increase in long-term equity investment impairment.
However, the total asset disposal income increased by 30.68 million, and other income increased by 80.61 million (mainly government subsidies). Taken together, the company’s net interest rate increased by 0.
93PCT to 7.


The TOC reform effect is remarkable, and the overall operating efficiency is improved.

With the implementation of the company’s TOC, the inventory scale has been effectively controlled. With the increase in revenue, the original value of inventory goods has fallen in the initial stage1.

1 billion (-4.

81%), the inventory turnover days decreased by 1 day to 184 days compared with the previous year.

At the same time, the company’s merchandise sales rate increased. In the summer of 2018, the merchandise sales rate increased by 6%, and the retail discount increased by 2%.

In terms of cash flow, long-term net operating cash.

53 trillion, considering currency funds and wealth management products, the total is about 21 trillion, and the overall cash flow is sufficient and stable.

Profit forecast and investment advice.

Affected by weak terminal consumption, the company’s store expansion speed increased, dragging down overall revenue growth.

Considering the company’s comprehensive multi-brand and multi-category layout, stable development of men’s and women’s clothing, and high-speed growth of children’s clothing, the business adjustment of Rakucho achieved initial results.

At the same time, the promotion of TOC has also continuously improved the efficiency of the overall supply chain and the overall operating capacity.

It is estimated that the net profit for 2019/20/21 will be 7 respectively.



35 trillion, an increase of 23 respectively.

34% / 15.

46% / 14.

9%, corresponding EPS is 1.



95 yuan, the current price corresponding to PE is 14/12/10 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Risk warning: weak consumption, sales expectations exceed expectations; store expansion is not as fast as expected.