Haitong Securities (600837): The performance of the chain is stable, the investment business is the main growth contribution
The 3Q19 results were in line with our expectations. Haitong Securities’ revenue for the 1st and 3rd quarters was +55.
5% to 251.
500 million, net profit attributable to mother for ten years + 1杭州夜网论坛 06% to 73.
9 trillion, corresponding to +3 on ROAE during the reporting period.
1ppt to 6.
1%, basically in line with expectations.
Net profit attributable to mothers in the third quarter of 19 years was + 234% / mom + 6% to 18.
6 trillion, corresponding to a single season ROAE +1.
0ppt / ring ratio + 0.
1ppt to 1.
In addition, the adjusted management fee rate (excluding other business income from total revenue) was -16.
9ppt / ring ratio +3.
1ppt to 47.
6%, or affected by changes in investment income in a single quarter; end-of-period leverage ratio +0.
1x to 4.
4x, leasing and Hong Kong securities brokerage subsidiaries drive the company’s overall leverage higher than its peers.
Development trend Investment business contributed a major increase from the previous quarter.
Investment income in the third quarter was + 848% YoY / + 114% to 24.
0 billion US dollars, accounting for 43% of adjusted revenue, corresponding to ten years of trading financial assets + 46% / chain + 13% to 229.2 billion US dollars, annualized investment return rate of +3 per second.
9ppt / ring ratio +2.
3ppt to 4.
6%, scale and yield continue to increase.
The quarter-on-quarter performance of the brokerage business converged with the market, and there was still significant pressure to surpass the commission rate.
3Q brokerage revenue quarter + 8% / QoQ -16% to 7.
9 trillion, accounting for only 14% of adjusted income, the sensitivity of the company’s brokerage business has been significantly reduced.
In addition, compared with the A-share market transaction volume of more than + 50%, -13% MoM, we expect the company’s commission rate to be even lower.
The investment bank’s performance is solid, and the science and technology board reserves are relatively abundant.
3Q investment bank income is + 146% per annum / -13% to 9 per cent.
200 million, accounting for 16% of adjusted revenue: the company’s stock underwriting market share is -8 per second.
5ppt / ring ratio -3ppt to 1.
8%, bond underwriting market share +1.
1ppt / ring ratio-0.
2ppt to 3.
At present, the company has completed the listing of 2 science and technology boards, 7 of which are in line (2 of which have already passed the meeting), accounting for 5% of the companies in the line of disclosure.
Asset management business declined.
In the third quarter of 19, the asset management revenue at the beginning of the year was -11% / QoQ from -35% to 4.80,000 yuan, accounting for 9% of adjusted income (relative to the industry’s asset management income is more than flat, 10% from the previous month).
In terms of credit business, total interest income was + 6% / qoq -3% to 48.
0 ppm: 1) How stable is the balance of 3Q funding?
52 billion (vs.
(+ 4% in the market quarter-on-quarter); 2) The balance of stock quality is adjusted with the market: 3Q repurchase financial assets under resale are -10% to 59.5 billion (vs.
Shares in the industry table -8.
5%; 3) Financial lease receivables at the end of the period were 3% to 54.6 billion US dollars.
Earnings forecasts and projections We have raised our 19/20 earnings by 4% each 南宁桑拿due to higher investment and investment bank income.
Haitong A / H was traded at 19e 1.
3x / 0.
7x P / B.
Maintain Haitong A neutral, raise target price by 6% to 16.
24 yuan (1.
4x 20e P / B and 15% upside); maintain Haitong H neutral, raise target price by 6% to 9.
07 Hong Kong dollars (0.
7x 20e P / B and 11% upside).
The amount of risky transactions dropped significantly, the stock / bond market fluctuated significantly, and progress in capital market reform was gradually expected.