Anjing Food (603345): High growth in advances and net profit maintained fast growth
The outstanding cash flow performance and the higher-than-expected net profit were due to lower expense ratios and increased investment income.
930,000 yuan, an increase of 18 in ten years.
80%; 19Q3 income 11.
580,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.
The company implements “secondary reconciliation” on the dealer’s income, and the revenue recognition lags by about one month, and the accounts received in advance in the first three quarters7.
580,000 yuan, an increase of 63 in ten years.
18%, the return is in good condition.
The company’s cash flow performance is outstanding, the first three quarters received goods sales cash 42.
68 ppm, an increase of 22 per year.
Net operating cash flow 3.
65 ppm, a year-on-year increase of 930%, mainly due to the increase in advance payments and the decrease in advance payments.
Net profit attributable to mother in the first three quarters of 19 2.
$ 3.8 billion, an increase of 21 per year.
25%, 19Q3 returns to net profit of the mother 0.
7.3 billion, an increase of 34 in ten years.
95%, deducting non-net profit increases by 25 per year.
56%, exceeding market expectations, mainly due to good expense control and increased investment income.
In the first three quarters of 19, the company’s gross profit margin fell and fell1.
35pct, reducing the selling expense ratio by 1.
04pct, the management expense ratio (including R & D expenses) is reduced by 0.
23 pct; financial expense ratio decreased by 0.
In the first three quarters of 19, investment income was zero.
160,000 yuan, an increase of 45 in ten years.
32%, mainly due to the increase in income from purchasing wealth management products.
The company faced upward pressure on raw material pork and chicken prices in 19 years. We believe that the company’s net profit will still grow rapidly in 19 years, mainly due to: 1) the company adjusted product formula, pork accounted for the expected level; inventory growth in the first three quarters of 1946.
1%, we judge that the company hoards some raw materials to cope with cost pressures; 2) The company can hedge the impact of rising prices of some raw materials by reducing promotions and product structure upgrades; 3) Benefiting from the scale effect, the company’s expense 北京夜网 ratio during the period is showing a downward trend; 4) From April 19, the expected growth rate will be reduced from 16% to 13%, and the company’s net interest rate can be increased.
The profit forecast predicts that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent will be 3 in 19-21.
8.6 billion yuan, an increase of 21.
05% / 20.
51% / 23.
28%, EPS is 1.
71/2.11 yuan / share, corresponding to PE is 37/31/25 times.
The proportion of the condiment industry similar to the business model is still not high by the company’s estimate. We give the company 35 times PE for 20 years, a reasonable value of 59.
9 yuan / share, maintain BUY rating.
Risks indicate that the release of production capacity exceeds expectations, leading to higher-than-expected sales growth; higher-than-expected increase in raw material costs, leading to a decline in gross profit margin; higher-than-expected cost allocation; and food safety risks.