Satellite Petrochemical (002648) Company In-depth Study: Entering the C2 Industry Chain and Starting a New Round of High Growth
Company introduction: The company is a leader in the C3 industry. Currently it has 90 PDH, 45-inch PP, 48-inch epoxy resin, 30-inch butyl acrylate, 9 SAP SAP, etc. Acrylic acid and esters and (poly) propylene are the main sources of profit for the company.
The company has invested in expansion and downstream projects in the Xujing New Area of Lianyungang, entered the C2 industry chain, and the first phase is expected to start production by the end of 2020. It will start to contribute performance in 2021.
Preliminary decomposition project: Optimal raw material route, 2021 increments are expected 1) Segmentation and splitting cost advantages are obvious: decomposition is located at the leftmost end of the ethylene cost curve of each process route due to its low raw material cost and high ethylene yield.The historical average profit of each crack is more than 3,000 yuan / ton.
Although 2020-2021 will be a big year for ethylene production, the company’s route advantage will help it maintain good profits.
2) U.S. supply continues to be loose. At present, there is only a surplus of 1.4 million barrels per day in the United States as natural gas sales, and a surplus of 1-1.2 million barrels per day will remain in the future.
And the prospect of transporting tons of reserves need not worry within the next 3 years.
It is expected that the US budget price will likely remain at a low level of 20-30 cents per gallon.
3) According to our calculations, under the neutral vertical, according to the MTO 杭州夜生活网 cash cost, the split of ethylene is about 1800 yuan / ton.
At a pessimistic level, ethylene follows the cost of naphtha cash, and the profit of segmentation is still 1,200 yuan / ton.
PDH: Lightweight route advantage provides profit margins in 2019, benefiting from the decrease in the demand for domestic chemical products in the United States, and the change in global customary trade routes between China and the United States trade disputes. The probability of prices flowing into the Chinese market will continue to remain low, and PDH costsThe advantages began to emerge.
We estimate that under the vertical, following the MTO cash cost in the millennium, PDH profit is still around 900 yuan / ton.
At a pessimistic level, the cash cost of naphtha has been followed for millennia, and PDH’s profit is still 300 yuan / ton.
Downstream of C3: The supply and demand of acrylic acid still needs to be under pressure, and the SAP highlights deserve improvement.
1) The supply pressure of the domestic carbon dioxide industry still exists: In 2020/2021, the domestic supplementary production capacity will be 36 and 20 respectively, and the growth rate will be 11 respectively.
0% and 5.
At 5%, the GDP will reach 382 euros at that time, and the operating rate is expected to further decline. It is expected that the profit of carbonic acid and esters will remain relatively low.
2) SAP products are gradually on track and have started to contribute to profitability: After several years of accumulation, SAP’s gross profit margin changed from negative to positive in 2017, and the gross profit margin in the first three quarters of 2019 has exceeded 20%.
It is expected that by 2020, the company’s third phase 6 will enter SAP and will be put into production, and SAP revenue and gross profit will further increase.
Profit forecast, forecast, and investment rating Maintain the company’s 19/20/21 performance forecast 13.
10,000 yuan, the current corresponding PE is 11 respectively.
In 2021, the company will enter the production capacity release period.
Even in the context of the overall downturn in the chemical industry, the company has a certain profit base.
And the company’s previous estimates and estimated historical estimation intervals are cheaper.
Maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminders: Risks of screening crack projects being put into operation less than expected; risks of soaring prices in the United States; risks of continued weakening of the macro economy;